China has declared that it is “ready for war” with the United States as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate over trade disputes, military posturing, and geopolitical manoeuvres.
This comes as Beijing increases its defence spending and imposes retaliatory tariffs on American imports in response to new U.S. trade measures.
In a direct challenge to President Donald Trump, China’s diplomatic representatives in Washington warned: “If war is what the U.S. wants—be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war—we are ready to fight until the end.”
This statement follows Trump’s announcement of 20 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods, citing Beijing’s alleged inaction over the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
China has responded with reciprocal tariffs of 10 to 15 per cent on selected U.S. imports starting from March 10.
Beijing’s Military Build-Up
Coinciding with its sharp rhetoric, China has revealed a 7.2 per cent increase in defence spending, bringing its official military budget to approximately 1.78 trillion yuan (€228 billion). The announcement was made during the annual Two Sessions meetings in Beijing, where Premier Li Qiang pledged “all-out efforts” to modernise the Chinese military by 2027. He emphasised that China would step up military training and combat readiness to “firmly safeguard China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
China’s military expansion has triggered regional concern, with recent live-fire drills off the Australian coast, military exercises near Taiwan and Vietnam, and confrontations with the Philippine coast guard in the South China Sea. Japan, South Korea, and India have all criticised Beijing’s growing military assertiveness.
Additionally, China is developing a new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to rival the U.S. Navy, further intensifying the strategic competition between the two powers.
Despite these developments, China’s military budget remains significantly smaller than that of the United States. Even with Trump’s proposed budget cuts, U.S. military spending for 2025 is projected at approximately $850 billion (£662 billion). The Pentagon estimates that China’s real military expenditure could be as high as $450 billion when additional expenditures outside the official budget are considered.
Taiwan: A Potential Flashpoint
The rising economic and military tensions have renewed speculation over the possibility of Chinese military action against Taiwan. Xi Jinping’s government is closely monitoring the U.S. response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and Trump’s shifting stance on American commitments abroad. If Beijing perceives Washington as unwilling to intervene decisively in global conflicts, it may calculate that an attempt to assert control over Taiwan could be met with a muted U.S. response.
Trump’s “America First” policy and reluctance to engage in overseas conflicts could reinforce such perceptions in Beijing. If Washington prioritises economic competition over strategic military commitments, China might seek to alter Taiwan’s status through coercive measures rather than outright military invasion. The U.S. semiconductor industry, which competes directly with Taiwan’s advanced chip production, could further complicate Washington’s calculations on whether to defend the island in the event of a crisis.
Moscow’s Strategic Calculations
For Russia, the evolving U.S.-China dynamic presents both risks and opportunities. Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Putin has raised questions about the Kremlin’s future alignment. However, any attempt by Moscow to pivot towards Washington at the expense of its relationship with Beijing could have significant economic and political consequences.
China’s growing influence in Central Asia poses a challenge to Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. If Beijing perceives Moscow as overly accommodating to Trump, it could assert its dominance in the region, potentially undermining Russia’s geopolitical standing. Additionally, Belarus, a key Russian ally, remains economically dependent on China, giving Beijing leverage over Moscow’s influence in Eastern Europe.
The Future of U.S. Global Influence
Trump’s approach to international relations suggests a belief that other global leaders will ultimately yield to U.S. pressure. While this strategy may work against smaller nations reliant on American economic and military aid, it is unlikely to succeed against China.
Beijing’s strong economic foundation and strategic long-term planning make it resistant to short-term U.S. pressure tactics. Instead, China may use the ongoing disputes to strengthen ties with other global players, including European nations wary of Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy. If Washington continues on a path of economic isolationism, it risks ceding influence to Beijing in key global markets.
A Shift in Global Power Dynamics
Xi and Putin share a strategic interest in diminishing U.S. influence on the world stage. If Trump’s policies accelerate Washington’s retreat from international commitments, China and Russia could capitalise on the vacuum to reshape global geopolitics. This could result in a scenario where the United States is perceived as a regional rather than a global power, marking a significant shift from its dominant post-World War II role.
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