Media reports suggest that the recent success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in downing Russian aircraft is attributed to the use of valuable Patriot and NASAMS missiles, as well as exploiting Russian vulnerabilities following the loss of a third of their long-range radar detection aircraft, the A-50.
According to sources cited by Forbes, the Ukrainian Air Force claims to have shot down 10 Russian military aircraft in just 10 days, including nine top-of-the-line bombers, the Su-34 and Su-35, as well as the rare A-50 radar aircraft named after Beriev.
Forbes notes that Russians are losing aircraft at a rate 20 times faster than they can replace them, as the Russian aerospace industry, despite sanctions, struggles to produce more than a few dozen new combat aircraft per year.
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Read also: Ukraine’s Air Defence Success: Six Russian Fighter Jets Downed in Three Days
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The author, David Axe, speculates that Ukrainian military air forces have deployed Patriot missile systems with mobile air defense groups, swiftly maneuvering near the front lines to ambush Russian aircraft with PAC-2 missiles with a range of 90 miles (145 km), then quickly relocating to evade counterattacks.
However, the shooting down of the A-50 from a distance of approximately 120 miles (nearly 200 km) suggests the involvement of missile systems with longer ranges, possibly the S-200, which Ukrainians might have retrieved from long-term storage.
Axe suggests that Ukraine likely moved some of its NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries, with a range of 25 miles (40 km), closer to the front lines.
This tactical shift led to the detection and destruction of a NASAMS launcher near Zaporizhzhia by Russians for the first time on Monday.
The article raises concerns about the sustainability of Ukraine’s missile stockpile, given the reported halt in US ammunition supply since December 2023.
Axe also speculates that Russian actions, including increased aerial sorties closer to the front lines, have contributed to the sharp rise in Russian aviation losses.
The Ukrainian Centre for Defense Strategies explains that while the loss of aircraft is a setback, Russian ground forces gain significant firepower superiority as a result of their fearlessness in using aviation directly over the battlefield.
The surge in Russian airstrikes provides Ukrainian air defense units with more targets, resulting in the downing of more Russian aircraft.
Furthermore, Russian pilots increasingly fail to detect Ukrainian missile launches, possibly due to the reduction in the number of A-50 radar aircraft, which were previously deployed to extend radar coverage across Ukraine.
The ongoing conflict sees both sides depleting resources they cannot easily replenish. Ukrainian forces aim to exhaust Russian air forces and prevent future bombing surges, while Russian objectives include bombing more Ukrainian garrisons to support their ground troops before their Su-34 and Su-35 squadrons dwindle due to aircraft shortages and experienced crews.
Axe suggests that a potential solution could come from US assistance, which has already been approved by the US Senate with a $60 billion aid package to Ukraine, pending approval in the US House of Representatives.
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