Ukraine’s Gains in Kursk Raise Stakes at Crucial Ramstein Meeting

The recent meeting in the Ramstein format marks a significant milestone as it is the first to take place following Ukraine’s military offensive in the Kursk region of Russia. This development has heightened the importance of the gathering for Kyiv, particularly in terms of the ongoing discussions surrounding Western arms supplies to Ukraine and, crucially, the potential approval by Western allies for Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s presence at the Ramstein talks is notable, as it underscores the importance of the situation. In his speech, he highlighted Ukraine’s advances in the Kursk region, an area many in Kyiv hoped would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to prioritise the security of his own country over his ambitions to annex more Ukrainian territory. However, it has become evident that, for Putin, the occupation of Ukraine remains a higher priority than the defence of Russia’s own borders.

Ukrainian Advances in Kursk: A Strategic Shift

The military operation in Kursk represents a crucial moment in Ukraine’s defence strategy. The success of the Ukrainian offensive in this region has not only been lauded by participants at the Ramstein meeting but also signals a significant shift in Western policy. Only a few months ago, the idea that Western countries would condone the use of their weapons in operations conducted by Ukrainian forces on Russian soil seemed unlikely. Now, this has become a reality, marking a fundamental change in the West’s approach to the conflict.

Defence ministers at Ramstein have been vocal about Ukraine’s achievements in Kursk, viewing it as a major success. This indicates that the red lines once considered inviolable by Western nations have indeed shifted. Prior to Ukraine’s operations in the Kursk region, it was almost unimaginable that the West would quietly accept the use of its arms in attacks on Russia’s sovereign territory. The discussions in Ramstein reflect the growing recognition of the need for such actions, given the evolving dynamics of the war.

However, the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, particularly in the Donetsk region, remain a pressing concern. Putin appears focused on continuing his war of attrition, which he sees as a vital component of his political career. At the same time, he continues to hint at so-called peace negotiations, a move aimed at destabilising Western support for Ukraine.

The Role of Long-Range Weapons in the Conflict

A key topic of discussion during the Ramstein meeting revolves around the potential approval by the United States for Ukraine to use long-range missiles, such as the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System), against targets within Russia. The US has so far been cautious in granting permission for such strikes, citing concerns over the risk of direct conflict between the United States and Russia. This hesitation has been effectively exploited by Moscow, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently warning Washington that a nuclear conflict, should it occur, would not be confined to Europe but would also affect the United States.

Another factor contributing to the US’s reluctance is the vast size of Russia’s territory, which allows it to relocate military assets to areas beyond the reach of Ukraine’s long-range missiles. Despite these concerns, the potential destruction of even a limited number of Russian military installations on its territory could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine’s favour. This would not only disrupt Russian supply lines but could also slow the momentum of Russian forces and compel them to shift to a defensive posture.

The upcoming meeting between President Zelensky and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is expected to be pivotal. The US is set to announce a new aid package for Ukraine, and discussions will likely focus on whether to provide long-range missiles for strikes on Russian soil. Such a decision could have a significant impact on the course of the war, particularly as the conflict enters its third year.

The Geopolitical Implications for the US

The geopolitical context in the United States also plays a crucial role in the Ramstein discussions. The current US administration, led by President Joe Biden, is approaching the end of its term, with presidential elections scheduled for next year. It is widely expected that neither Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin nor Secretary of State Antony Blinken will remain in their positions under the next administration, regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the presidency.

This impending transition has added urgency to the decisions made at the Ramstein meeting. The current administration is likely seeking to solidify its support for Ukraine before handing over power. Zelensky’s meeting with Austin may serve as a precursor to a final summit between the Ukrainian president and President Biden, which could take place on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly session.