President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 9 October that Vladimir Putin “personally fears” entering a ceasefire in Ukraine because relaunching full-scale hostilities afterwards would be difficult for Russia economically, domestically and diplomatically.
The Ukrainian leader argued that pressure—military, economic and political—could still make a cessation of fire possible.
“It is not easy for them to move from a full-scale war to a ceasefire and then back to a full-scale war again. It is difficult economically, [with] society, [and with] the world. And certainly difficult with those countries that still shake Putin’s hand,” Zelenskyy said in remarks published on 9 October.
He added that increased pressure would work “when they lose more from the war than they could lose under other scenarios,” pointing to long-range Ukrainian strikes, stronger sanctions, continued defence on the battlefield and support for peace initiatives.
The comments coincide with Kyiv’s signal that it is prepared to nominate U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he helps secure a ceasefire with Russia. Zelenskyy’s position follows months of U.S. efforts to broker talks and a widely publicised commitment by Trump to end the war, which he later conceded had proved “a little harder” than expected.
Any such nomination would not affect the 2025 prize to be announced on 10 October, as the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s rules set a 31 January deadline for valid submissions, with limited scope for committee members to add names at their first post-deadline meeting. Nominations received after 31 January are normally carried over to the following year’s assessment.
Zelenskyy’s assessment of Moscow’s incentives comes after the 15 August Trump–Putin summit in Anchorage, Alaska, which ended without agreement. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov later said the “strong momentum” surrounding efforts to end the war had waned since that meeting. The encounter nonetheless placed renewed focus on a possible ceasefire framework and on prospective direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, which have yet to materialise.
Kyiv continues to link diplomatic tracks to sustained military and economic pressure on Russia. Ukrainian officials argue that long-range strikes against military and energy infrastructure, tighter sanctions enforcement and continued air-defence support can raise the costs to the Kremlin of ongoing operations. In parallel, Ukraine has signalled readiness to engage with peace initiatives, provided they strengthen rather than dilute Ukraine’s security. Zelenskyy has repeatedly said that a ceasefire remains achievable if pressure increases sufficiently to alter Russia’s calculus.
The Nobel development reflects the political dimension of these moves. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would put Trump forward if a ceasefire was achieved that halted Russia’s offensive operations. While other figures have publicly advocated for Trump’s candidacy, the Nobel institutions keep the nomination list confidential for 50 years; public claims about nominees cannot be verified before that period elapses.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the 2025 Peace Prize on Friday, 10 October, at 11:00 CEST in Oslo. Regardless of the outcome, procedural rules mean any new nomination arising from a prospective ceasefire would be relevant, at the earliest, to a subsequent prize cycle.
Zelenskyy’s latest remarks frame the Kremlin’s reluctance to pause hostilities as a practical constraint rather than a rhetorical stance. A formal cessation of fire would create expectations among Russia’s public and among states maintaining working relations with Moscow; resuming large-scale offensive operations after a pause could therefore carry higher political and economic costs. Ukraine’s position is that this dynamic underpins Putin’s preference to continue the war for now, while avoiding commitments that would be monitored and harder to reverse.
Separately, Ukraine has emphasised the importance of maintaining battlefield resilience into the winter months, warning of renewed Russian strikes against energy infrastructure. Kyiv argues that a combination of strengthened air defence, repair capacity and sanctions enforcement against Russia’s war-sustaining sectors is integral to narrowing Moscow’s options and increasing the likelihood of a ceasefire conducted on terms acceptable to Ukraine. Recent assessments from Ukrainian authorities and independent reporting note the impact of Ukrainian long-range capabilities on Russian fuel supplies and logistics, and continuing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy assets.
In summary, Kyiv has set out a two-track approach: to keep military and economic pressure on Russia while backing diplomatic proposals that could halt the fighting. Any Nobel consideration tied to a ceasefire would rest on a concrete outcome. For now, the diplomatic pathway remains open but uncertain; Ukraine’s leadership argues that only a combination of sanctions, isolation and battlefield pressure is likely to change the Kremlin’s calculations.
