Despite reservations voiced by representatives of the European People’s Party (EPP), António Costa, the former Prime Minister of Portugal, stands as the leading candidate to replace Charles Michel as the President of the European Council.
As the European Union prepares for its next five-year leadership cycle, significant shifts in the top European positions are anticipated. Ursula von der Leyen of Germany is expected to secure a second term as President of the European Commission, and Roberta Metsola of Malta is likely to be re-elected as President of the European Parliament.
Notable changes include the potential appointment of Estonia’s current Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, as the head of the EU’s foreign policy, and António Costa emerging as a strong contender for the presidency of the European Council.
The role of the President of the European Council is unique. Although the position does not grant the authority to make decisions on behalf of the EU independently, it carries significant informal influence over the agenda and direction of EU summits.
The President convenes and chairs these summits and announces their outcomes. Thus, the candidate must be a former president or prime minister of an EU member state with a proven track record of effective negotiation and compromise.
European top positions are often distributed among parties forming the coalition in the new European Parliament.
The president of the European Council is expected to come from the Socialists and Democrats group, which secured the second-largest number of seats in the recent European elections.
With few former prime ministers from the social-democratic camp willing to relocate to Brussels, Costa has become the de facto candidate, despite certain reservations about his track record.
António Costa’s candidacy has not been without controversy.
Recently, the EPP, victorious in the European elections, proposed splitting the European Council presidency term into two halves of 2.5 years each, with one half going to their candidate.
This proposal, suggested by Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, stems in part from concerns over Costa’s stance on Ukraine.
Despite Portugal’s consistent support for Ukraine under Costa’s government, his cautious approach to Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership has raised questions.
Costa’s support for Ukraine has been clear but measured. In June 2022, he emphasised immediate practical assistance over engaging in lengthy debates about Ukraine’s EU candidacy status, arguing for maintaining EU unity as the best support for Ukraine.
He has expressed scepticism about rapid EU expansion, citing unresolved issues among current member states and the need for the EU to be prepared for such a significant enlargement.
Similarly, Costa’s government was cautious about Ukraine’s NATO membership, advocating for adherence to military, political, and economic criteria alongside the cessation of hostilities.
Costa’s political career spans over four decades, including multiple terms as Portugal’s Prime Minister starting in 2015.
His tenure is marked by economic recovery post-financial crisis and an effective COVID-19 vaccination campaign.
However, his administration has faced criticism and scandal, including a significant controversy over the privatisation of the national airline TAP.
In November 2023, Costa resigned amid a corruption investigation related to lithium mining licenses.
Despite no charges being filed against him, the investigation remains open, casting a shadow over his candidacy.
Nevertheless, many European capitals do not see the investigation as an impediment to his appointment as the next President of the European Council.
While some European leaders have expressed concerns, including alternative suggestions such as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Costa remains the frontrunner.
If appointed, he will play a crucial role in setting the agenda for EU summits, including discussions on Ukraine’s EU membership. Costa’s extensive experience and diplomatic skills could prove vital in navigating the EU through its next phase.
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[…] former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa is slated to become President of the European Council for an initial period of two and a half […]