So, Fico has gone all-in. According to him, Bratislava will, if necessary — meaning if Kyiv refuses to agree to extend transit — halt electricity supplies to Ukraine. This is not merely blatant blackmail but the opening of a “Western Front” against Ukraine. He is doing this knowingly. In practice, under Fico’s leadership, Slovakia is fully transitioning into the camp of the “Coalition of Evil,” akin to Hungary. However, even Orbán has not gone as far in his anti-Ukrainian actions.
Take note that Orbán has also brought up the topic of gas transit through Ukraine. Previously, he and Szijjártó repeatedly stated that they no longer needed it, as Hungary receives gas through a route independent of Ukraine (via the “Turkish Stream“). Yet suddenly, Orbán has remembered it. “We are now attempting a trick… what if the gas, once it enters Ukrainian territory, is no longer Russian but belongs to the buyers? In this way, the gas entering Ukraine will no longer be Russian but Hungarian… Hungary will not give up the Ukrainian transit route for gas,” Orbán said. As is known, Orbán successfully managed a similar trick with Russian oil, rebranded as Hungarian at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, a few months ago.
With gas, Fico has yet to succeed. Why not try it with gas too, Orbán might wonder?
But don’t jump to conclusions. This is not a case where Orbánistan rushes to aid Ficoland. Prepare for an unexpected twist! Keep in mind that the mastermind behind the gas strategy sits not in Budapest or Bratislava but in Moscow.
Orbán spoke at a briefing on Saturday the 21st, and by Sunday, Fico was already in Moscow, even though his visit was initially scheduled for Monday, as oddly announced by Serbian President Vučić. Why the rush?
Putin desperately needs the transit route through Ukraine because Scholz is unwilling to activate the intact Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and the Poles refuse to restart the Yamal-Europe pipeline. This leaves Putin with only two routes to the EU: the direct route through Ukraine (via the “Progress” pipeline or the Yamburg-Sudzha-Uzhhorod/Velké Kapušany pipeline) and the indirect one — from Siberia to the Black Sea, across the sea via the second branch of the “Turkish Stream” to the Balkans, and then through the low-capacity “Balkan Stream” via Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary. Naturally, the direct route is better and cheaper, but Ukraine is closing it. That leaves only one, narrow, indirect gas pathway to Europe via the Turkish route.
Thus, the Kremlin is making desperate attempts to preserve transit through Ukraine. It has decided to incentivise its accomplices and activate them not only on the gas front. A “prize fund” of approximately $1.2 billion has been announced. Where does this come from? Gazprom currently lacks even an extra billion and is grateful for sums significantly smaller.
An informed source indicates that Gazprom “found” over a billion for the Kremlin as a prize fund for allies within the EU and NATO, as their efforts to block and divide these organisations are deemed worth it.
The $1.2 billion is roughly the amount Gazprom underpaid Naftogaz under the existing agreement. Since reducing transit volumes through Ukraine in the second half of 2022, Gazprom has also reduced payments, which violates the contractual terms. The 2019 agreement stipulates a “ship-or-pay” principle: regardless of how much gas is transported, Gazprom must pay for the contracted volume of 40 billion cubic metres annually, nearly $1.3 billion per year. However, Gazprom has reduced its payments to approximately $800 million annually, meaning Naftogaz has been underpaid about $1.2 billion over 2.5 years.
Naftogaz has, of course, filed for arbitration (in Switzerland), and it is highly likely that the ruling will be in its favour (expected around April-May). However, it is clear that Gazprom will not pay. Nonetheless, it saved $1.2 billion by underpaying Naftogaz under the agreement. It is equally clear that this money does not actually exist, but deceiving its European allies is an option. Their services can be paid for in kind — with gas.
Somehow, Orbán learned earlier that if Zelenskyy could be pressured into agreeing to transit “non-Russian” blue fuel (whether “Azerbaijani,” “Hungarian,” “Slovak,” or gas from an “international consortium”), Gazprom, following Kremlin instructions, would provide a special discount on exported gas. A designated European importer would then enjoy the margin and, by selling the resource on the market, receive the promised cash reward.
These “designated importers” are, naturally, companies traditionally working with Gazprom under Orbán’s control in Hungary (MOL) and Fico’s in Slovakia (SPP).
Essentially, the Kremlin has set up a competition between Orbán and Fico for the prize money. Seeing that Fico is clearly unable to persuade Zelenskyy, while Orbán’s oil trick succeeded, the Kremlin has decided to pit its gas-hungry European accomplices against each other. Fico is evidently unwilling to yield to Orbán, so he rushed to Moscow, where he was warmly received ahead of schedule — on Sunday, not Monday.
Thus, the battle for the billion continues, the Kremlin revels in it, but it is becoming increasingly evident that Central European accomplices, through their actions, are provoking growing negative reactions in Brussels and Washington. This is particularly relevant in the context of Trump’s intentions, as he wants Europe to buy American, not Russian, gas.
The visit to Moscow did not bring Fico closer to success. Instead, it increased his risks in Bratislava, where protests by the opposition occurred, and interest in him emerged from the Prosecutor General’s Office. It seems they might know something more there…
Fico has decided to press forward with direct blackmail on his part, directing President Pellegrini to create “incentives” for Ukraine. The latter stated he would be ready to visit Ukraine if the transit issue were resolved. Such is the kindergarten-level drama unfolding in Bratislava.
It is crucial for us to remain steadfast and resist pressure from Putin’s “Trojan horses.” And, of course, the European Commission must be made aware of the actions of Bratislava and Budapest, which not only violate but outright ignore EU policies while being EU members and benefiting significantly from the union’s budget — much more than the billions promised by Moscow. It is high time Brussels realised that Orbán’s Hungary and Fico’s Slovakia have been turned by the Kremlin into Orbánistan and Ficoland — platforms for Russian aggression within the EU and NATO.
P.S. The Slovakian politicians’ tendency to ally with bloodthirsty dictators dates back to World War II. In the lower photo, Jozef Tiso is pictured with Adolf Hitler.
