Ukrainian officials have raised alarms about a significant buildup of Belarusian military forces near the Belarus-Ukraine border, according to reports from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
Citing intelligence data, the Ukrainian government noted the presence of Special Operations Forces from Belarus, alongside a notable amount of engineering equipment and air defence systems. The deployment is being carried out under the guise of military exercises, raising suspicions of more hostile intentions.
The situation is further complicated by the presence of former mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a notorious private military company previously led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. After Prigozhin’s death, many of the mercenaries associated with Wagner were reportedly transferred to Belarus under agreements brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
This troop build-up comes amid heightened tensions between Ukraine and Belarus. Ukrainian officials have warned that any further hostile actions by the Lukashenko regime would justify a Ukrainian response in self-defence, particularly if Belarusian forces were to cross into Ukrainian territory.
Strategic Distracting Tactic
Ukrainian analysts suggest that the Belarusian manoeuvres may be part of a broader strategy orchestrated by Moscow. The purpose is likely to distract Ukrainian forces from critical battlefronts, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Russia’s military objectives include pushing Ukrainian troops out of the contested Kursk region by early October, as per orders reportedly issued by President Vladimir Putin. This would require not only substantial Russian military efforts but also a diversion of Ukrainian forces away from that region. By creating the appearance of a serious threat from the north, Belarus aims to force Ukraine to redeploy its military reserves.
Lukashenko’s role appears to be key in this diversion strategy. According to Ukrainian officials, the Belarusian president is under significant pressure from Moscow to play his part in the war, despite his public rhetoric advocating peace talks with Ukraine. This peace rhetoric, which includes recent statements by Lukashenko claiming that Ukraine has already been “denazified” and that there is no longer a reason to fight, is seen by Ukrainian officials as a smokescreen for more aggressive intentions. These intentions, they argue, are not solely Lukashenko’s but are dictated by Putin, who aims to use Belarus as a platform for his own strategic goals.
Historical Context and Belarus’ Risk
The threat posed by Belarus is not new. In February 2022, Russian forces used Belarus as a staging ground for their invasion of northern Ukraine, targeting cities like Kyiv and Chernihiv. Although the initial Russian assault failed, Belarus’ proximity to Ukraine makes it a persistent concern for Ukrainian defence strategists.
For Lukashenko, the stakes are high. His willingness to comply with Moscow’s demands could expose him to significant domestic risks. Unlike in Russia, where public support for President Putin’s aggressive foreign policy remains strong, the Belarusian public has a different outlook. The majority of Belarusians are opposed to the war in Ukraine, and the political atmosphere within Belarus is far more volatile.
Since the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which were widely regarded as rigged, Lukashenko has faced widespread discontent. The mass protests that followed his claim of victory were met with a brutal crackdown, and Belarus has since been in a state of repression.
Despite this, the underlying resentment towards Lukashenko remains, and his legitimacy is far weaker compared to Putin’s in Russia. Many Belarusians view him as a dictator who only maintains power through force and repression.
Lukashenko’s attempts to maintain neutrality during the Ukraine war have, so far, allowed him to avoid direct involvement in the conflict. However, if he were to fully commit Belarusian forces to the war, the domestic consequences could be severe. Belarusian society could react strongly against any attempt to drag the country into a war that the majority of its citizens oppose. Lukashenko’s calculations, therefore, are complicated by the need to balance his loyalty to Putin with the simmering discontent among his own people.
Lukashenko’s Dilemma
Ukrainian officials have made it clear that they are well aware of the balancing act that Lukashenko is attempting. They believe that his primary objective is to create the illusion of a serious threat from Belarus in order to force Ukraine to divert its military resources. Meanwhile, Lukashenko continues to speak publicly about the need for peace talks, a stance that Ukrainian officials see as nothing more than a cover for his true role in the conflict.
However, Lukashenko’s willingness to align himself so closely with Putin’s plans could backfire. Should Belarus become directly involved in the war, it could invite retaliation from Ukraine, potentially leading to a situation where Belarusian forces find themselves fighting on their own soil. This, in turn, could further weaken Lukashenko’s already tenuous grip on power.
There is also the question of whether Putin would come to Lukashenko’s aid if his regime were threatened. While Russia has intervened in Belarusian affairs in the past, Putin’s military is already stretched thin by its commitments in Ukraine. Maintaining positions in various regions of Ukraine, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson, has strained Russian military resources. Should a crisis emerge in Belarus, it is uncertain whether Putin would have the capacity or the willingness to intervene.
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