The European Union’s environment ministers have approved a 2040 greenhouse gas target after late-night talks in Brussels, agreeing a framework that sets a 90% cut from 1990 levels but allows greater use of foreign carbon credits and delays a new carbon market by a year.
The agreement was reached in the early hours of Wednesday, 5 November, ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, which opens on Thursday, 6 November.
Under the deal, member states may purchase international carbon credits to account for up to 5 percentage points of the 90% target. In practical terms, that would lower the required domestic emissions reduction to 85%, with the remaining share delivered via projects outside the bloc. Ministers also agreed to consider, at a later stage, whether a further 5 percentage points could be met with international credits, a clause that—if activated—could reduce the domestic effort still further.
The package includes a separate mid-term marker: an EU-wide 2035 reduction range of 66.25% to 72.5% from 1990 levels. The 2035 range will underpin the Union’s formal submission to the UN, which asked governments to file their plans before COP30. The EU had failed to reach a 2040 deal in September and had signalled a “statement of intent” pending final agreement; ministers’ approval now provides a defined trajectory into the 2030s.
To secure sufficient support, ministers coupled the target with adjustments to other policies. Notably, they endorsed delaying by one year—to 2028—the launch of the new EU carbon market covering fuels used in buildings and road transport (often referred to as ETS2). The delay follows concerns about price volatility and the cost burden on households and small businesses.
Voting revealed familiar divisions. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary opposed the 2040 deal on competitiveness grounds, arguing that industry already faces high energy costs and pressure from imports. Their votes did not prevent adoption, which required support from at least 15 of the 27 member states. Countries including Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden argued for holding the line on ambition, citing extreme weather impacts and the industrial opportunity in clean technologies. France and Portugal favoured added flexibility through credits, while others had pressed for an even larger credit share.
Danish climate minister Lars Aagaard, who chaired the talks, said the target was a political choice with significant consequences and that ministers had sought a path consistent with competitiveness, social balance and security. The compromise is intended to steer the EU between its legally binding 2030 objective—a net reduction of at least 55%—and the 2050 climate neutrality goal, while responding to a broader policy debate over industrial strategy and defence spending.
The use of international credits is likely to be closely scrutinised. The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change has previously recommended a 90–95% domestic reduction by 2040 and advised against counting foreign offsets, warning that such mechanisms risk diverting investment away from European decarbonisation and raising integrity concerns. Ministers’ decision to permit a 5% share—plus a possible further 5% pending review—marks a departure from that advice.
The agreement ensures the EU arrives at COP30 with a new headline objective, maintaining a degree of leadership in the UN process even as member states calibrate ambition against economic pressures. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to engage counterparts in Belém from Thursday. Negotiators will seek progress on financing, carbon markets and the implementation of existing pledges—areas where the EU aims to remain active despite internal debates over the cost and sequencing of the transition.
EU mulls brake clause tying 2040 climate goal to forest CO₂ sink
