Europe’s asylum system recorded a marked reduction in new claims in the first six months of 2025.
By 30th June, EU+ countries (the EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland) had received 399,000 applications for international protection, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).
The decline coincided with an abrupt fall in applications from Syrians following the ousting of the Assad regime in December 2024.
The change altered the profile of nationalities seeking asylum. Syrians lodged around 25,000 applications in the first half, down by two-thirds compared with the same period in 2024. Venezuelans became the largest applicant nationality at approximately 49,000 (+31% year-on-year), while Afghans filed about 42,000 claims. Ukrainian applications rose to 16,000 (+29%), though these remain small next to the 4.5 million beneficiaries of temporary protection in the EU+ at end-June. Bangladeshis (17,000, –26%) and Turks (17,000, –41%) also recorded declines.
Destination patterns shifted as well. Germany, the main receiving country in recent years, was overtaken by France and Spain. In January–June 2025, France registered about 78,000 applications and Spain 77,000, ahead of Germany (70,000) and Italy (64,000). France’s volume was broadly stable year-on-year, while applications fell in Germany (–43%), Italy (–25%) and Spain (–13%). On a per-capita basis, Greece received the highest pressure—about one application for every 380 residents (27,000 applications; 2,635 per million).
Applications continued to be concentrated by nationality in specific member states. An estimated 93% of Venezuelan applicants lodged in Spain, reflecting language, diaspora ties and a tendency for national forms of protection to be granted there. Around three quarters of Malian applications were made in Spain; almost all Haitian applications (99%) were filed in France. The EUAA notes low rates of repeated applications among visa-free Latin American nationalities, consistent with recent arrival patterns and the availability of national protection in Spain.
Recognition outcomes fell sharply. The EU+ first-instance recognition rate stood at 25% for the half-year—the lowest semi-annual or annual level recorded by the agency. This was primarily a procedural effect linked to the pause in processing many Syrian cases after December 2024.
Several national authorities also recorded withdrawals by Syrian applicants as negative decisions, weighing on the aggregate rate. By contrast, long-standing patterns persisted for some nationalities: Bangladeshis around 4%, Pakistanis ~10% and Nigerians just over 10%. Others saw notable shifts: Malians at 79% (up from 41% in 2021) and Haitians at 86% (up from 10% in 2020).
The stock of pending first-instance cases remained high. At the end of June 2025, 918,000 applications awaited a first-instance decision across the EU+, one of the largest mid-year totals on record. Including appeal and review stages, the broader caseload approached an estimated 1.3 million by end-May.
Policy developments are likely to shape processing in the medium term. The Asylum Procedures Regulation—Regulation (EU) 2024/1348—becomes applicable on 12th June 2026 and introduces, inter alia, mandatory acceleration for certain categories, including applicants from countries with historically low recognition rates. The EUAA estimates that 51% of applications in the first half of 2025 were lodged by citizenships whose 2024 recognition rate was ≤20%, which may bring more cases under accelerated examination once the regulation applies.
Separately, the EU institutions reached a provisional political agreement on 17th June 2025 to strengthen the Schengen visa-suspension mechanism, adding new grounds such as hybrid threats, lack of alignment with EU visa policy and the operation of investor-citizenship schemes. Formal adoption by Parliament and Council is pending before entry into force. The EUAA highlights the relevance of visa-free travel for a sizeable share of applicants, notably Venezuelans and Colombians, which may intersect with this reform.
The EUAA attributes the 2025 shift chiefly to external developments rather than changes in EU policy. Syrian applications fell from more than 12,000 in November 2024 to about 2,600 in June 2025, a trend the agency links to conditions following the fall of Damascus and the formation of a transitional authority. While some displaced Syrians have returned to the region, the agency notes that most Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Europe do not intend to return in the immediate term.
Methodology notes apply. The figures derive from the EUAA’s Early Warning and Preparedness System (EPS) and are provisional, subject to later validation via Eurostat. EUAA notes missing June 2025 first-instance pending data for Italy and the use of an approximation for that element.
