A new opinion survey across the European Union’s five largest member states reports widespread scepticism about the transatlantic tariff agreement concluded in July, with majorities saying the terms primarily advantage the United States economy rather than Europe’s.
Conducted by the French pollster Cluster17 for the European affairs platform Le Grand Continent, the study finds that an average of 77% of respondents believe the arrangement benefits the US above all, with only 2% judging that Europe stands to gain most. The results vary by country, from 89% in France to 50% in Poland. The five states polled together account for roughly 60% of the EU population.
A majority also characterise the outcome as a “humiliation” for the bloc: on average, 52% used that term to describe the agreement reached between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Three-quarters (75%) say the Commission president defended European interests “very” or “fairly” badly, and 60% would view her resignation favourably. The findings land on the eve of von der Leyen’s annual State of the Union address to the European Parliament, scheduled for 10th September.
The deal, announced in late July, establishes a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods entering the US while scrapping EU tariffs on US industrial products and easing access for a range of US seafood and agricultural exports. According to US administration materials, the EU side also commits to increased purchases of US energy—stated at $750bn by 2028—and additional EU corporate investment in the United States totalling $600bn. The Commission has framed the package as a means of restoring stability and predictability and of avoiding a threatened 30% tariff rate in the US.
The survey suggests significant public unease with those trade-offs. Nearly seven in ten respondents say they would be prepared to boycott US goods because of the deal’s terms. Views of the US president are also a factor: 44% describe Donald Trump as “an enemy of Europe”; 47% say he exhibits “autocratic tendencies”; and 36% state he “behaves like a dictator”. While such labels are matters of perception rather than legal assessment, they indicate the political headwinds surrounding the agreement as it moves into EU scrutiny.
Institutional reaction within the Union has begun to take shape. The chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, Bernd Lange, said last week he had “doubts” about the package and anticipated amendments during the legislative process. His comments followed concerns about predictability after Washington’s separate decision to raise tariffs to 50% on hundreds of steel-related products. The Commission’s trade department has defended the accord as a pragmatic step to maintain trade flows and avert escalation, while continuing to pursue agreements with other partners such as Mexico and Mercosur.
Despite the critical tone on the tariff issue, broad support for EU membership remains intact in the five surveyed countries, though with notable differences between them. Majorities ranging from 85% in Spain to 61% in France favour remaining in the Union. At the same time, 37% of respondents say that, if the EU fails to protect citizens from geopolitical risks, an exit “should be envisaged”. The juxtaposition points to a preference for reform and firmer external economic management over withdrawal, but also to the political sensitivity of trade concessions perceived as asymmetrical.
Sectoral impacts will vary as details are implemented. The removal of EU tariffs on US industrial goods and the expanded preferential access for US agri-food products imply greater competitive pressure on parts of Europe’s manufacturing and farming sectors, while the 15% US baseline tariff preserves a cost handicap for many EU exporters into the American market. The binding commitments on energy purchases and the expected uplift in EU investment in the United States will be watched closely by energy suppliers, utilities and capital-intensive industries for effects on sourcing, pricing and capital allocation within the Union.
Politically, the timing sets up a prominent test. Von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech on Wednesday is expected to outline the Commission’s priorities for the year ahead. With parliamentary oversight pending and national governments assessing distributional impacts, the administration will need to show how the agreement’s costs and benefits are to be balanced in practice, and what safeguards will be offered to sectors and regions most exposed to the new tariff structure. The polling indicates that public confidence will hinge on convincing explanations of strategic necessity and on tangible measures to mitigate adverse effects.
