The European Commission has released its annual Enlargement Package, a comprehensive review of the progress of candidate and potential candidate countries seeking EU membership.
This package, which acts as an audit of each nation’s advancement towards EU integration, has cast a spotlight on the challenges facing Ukraine and its neighbours on the path to EU membership.
The European Commission’s report underscores the critical work required of candidate countries if they are to meet the stringent requirements for joining the EU.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remains committed to the enlargement process, but as noted by EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, without concrete action from the candidate states, progress will be stalled.
Slow Progress Across the Board
The report reveals that candidate countries across the board are struggling to make the necessary advancements. Even Moldova, which has a relatively stable government coalition, has shown slower reform progress than in previous years.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s trajectory has diverged significantly from EU alignment, leading Brussels to halt integration talks with Tbilisi. The Western Balkan countries also continue to lag in necessary reforms, and Bosnia and Herzegovina remains reluctant to make meaningful strides towards EU integration.
The report raises an essential question: do these countries genuinely aspire to join the EU, or are their ambitions largely declarative?
The report serves as a wake-up call to countries with a sincere desire to join the EU, urging them to accelerate essential reforms and tackle the “technical work” needed to meet EU standards. As Varhelyi highlighted, only by addressing these requirements can countries hope to achieve membership.
A Shifting Favourite: Montenegro Emerges as a Leader
The report also signals a shift in the EU’s stance on potential candidates, with Montenegro emerging as a favoured candidate for accession. Despite its complex political landscape, Montenegro’s government has demonstrated a willingness to pursue EU-aligned reforms without resorting to selective adoption, or “cherry-picking,” of EU criteria.
This approach has earned Montenegro higher marks compared to its peers, showing tangible progress in areas tied to core EU values and foundational principles.
A Historic Window of Opportunity
Historically, the EU has seen regular enlargement, with no ten-year period passing without new members joining, until recent years that is. Following Croatia’s accession in 2013, the EU entered a phase of “enlargement fatigue,” where leaders openly expressed reluctance to consider new members. This fatigue has hindered the efforts of Western Balkan nations, leaving them in an indefinite holding pattern.
However, the geopolitical landscape changed significantly with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This shift has renewed urgency among European policymakers for expansion, particularly for Ukraine and Moldova, which were granted candidate status in record time due to security considerations.
Varhelyi has suggested that new members could join the EU within the next five years, underlining the importance of robust alignment with EU standards.
Nevertheless, despite this political drive, the accession process remains highly technical. No amount of political will can offset the structural requirements that candidate countries must meet to join the EU’s single market. This need for technical compliance remains a systemic issue, with most candidate countries showing insufficient progress.
Ukraine’s Unique Position and Persistent Challenges
The report outlines Ukraine’s contrasting levels of progress, revealing both strengths and weaknesses in its alignment with EU standards. While Ukraine has achieved strong ratings in certain sectors, it has shown limited progress in five key areas.
Ukraine’s standing within the group of candidate countries has not improved significantly over the last year, and it remains only marginally ahead of Moldova, trailing other candidates, including Serbia, despite Serbia’s pro-Russian political leanings.
The uneven nature of Ukraine’s integration efforts poses several risks. First, it may fuel the misconception that Ukraine is already nearing EU standards in areas like international relations, while the reality shows substantial gaps in other critical sectors.
Second, areas of reform that require extensive time to implement risk becoming bottlenecks in Ukraine’s EU accession process if postponed. The economic sector, in particular, presents hurdles that could hinder further integration, especially regarding participation in the single market.
Moreover, the report highlights concerns about Ukraine’s selective approach to reforms, where certain sectors are prioritised while others are neglected. This “cherry-picking” approach has led to perceptions within the EU that Ukraine lacks a comprehensive commitment to meeting EU standards. For Ukraine to succeed in its EU ambitions, a shift in strategy is necessary.
The Race Against Time
The slow reform pace across candidate countries has raised concerns in Brussels. The report illustrates that if countries continue progressing at their current rates—averaging minor annual improvements—full compliance could take decades.
This challenge is particularly evident for Ukraine, which must accelerate its reforms if it hopes to catch up with other candidates.
Despite Ukraine’s achievements, including strong progress in six sectors, these gains have not substantially advanced its readiness for EU membership. The primary focus of recent reforms in Ukraine has been on securing international financial support through the Ukraine Facility and conducting a legal review rather than directly aligning with EU standards. While these steps are valuable, they have not translated into a measurable shift towards EU compliance.
Ukraine and the Path Forward
The EU’s Enlargement Package underscores that Ukraine’s journey towards EU membership is far from over. The urgency for reform is shared across candidate countries, with none reaching the threshold of “substantial reform progress” in the past year.
Notably, Moldova and Montenegro have shown the highest overall scores, though these remain below the levels needed for immediate accession.
The report also emphasises the divide between “real candidates” actively working towards membership and “problematic” countries such as Georgia, which have shown resistance to EU-aligned reforms. Looking ahead, North Macedonia and Serbia face uncertain prospects due to recent political developments and diverging interests from Brussels.
As Ukraine continues its EU journey, it faces a critical choice: it must commit to comprehensive and accelerated reforms if it is to realise its EU aspirations within the historic window currently open.
Failure to do so risks further delay and a potentially insurmountable gap between Ukraine and its EU membership goal. For Kyiv, the path forward requires not only dedication but a clear and decisive commitment to aligning with EU standards in every sector.
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