Another round of nuclear talks opens today in Geneva, with Iran once again dictating the terms of engagement.
Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi leads Tehran’s delegation, while representatives from Britain, France and Germany will dutifully attend, in the hope that the Islamic Republic can be coaxed back into compliance.
The agenda is predictable enough: nuclear activities and the lifting of sanctions. But what truly hangs over these talks is a far more troubling reality — Europe’s chronic indecision, and Iran’s growing defiance.
The so-called E3 have spent months warning Tehran that if it refuses to return to negotiations by the end of August, they will have no choice but to trigger the “snapback” mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal, reinstating all UN sanctions. Yet Iran knows full well that Europe has neither the political will nor the unity to deliver on its threats. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said it openly: “important countries” remain divided. That division is Europe’s weakness, and Tehran has been quick to exploit it.
Iran’s strategy is hardly subtle. Officials dangle the threat of leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, insist enrichment will continue regardless of international pressure, and dismiss the idea of compromise with Washington out of hand. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could not have been clearer: direct talks with the United States are off the table. Tehran is setting red lines, while the Europeans are left issuing deadlines they appear reluctant to enforce.
The looming expiry of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 only sharpens this imbalance. For Tehran, it is an opportunity to press ahead, confident that procedural wrangling in New York and divisions among world powers will shield it from the harshest consequences. Iranian officials and their allies are already conducting legal manoeuvres to frustrate the snapback provision. Once again, Iran plays offence while the West scrambles in defence.
The contrast with Moscow’s posture is striking. Russia, whatever one thinks of its motives, is at least decisive. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s phone call with Abbas Araghchi underscored that Moscow is actively positioning itself as Tehran’s partner against European and American pressure. For the E3, meanwhile, the phone lines are a substitute for policy. Calls between foreign ministers and the EU’s High Representative in recent days have produced not resolve, but yet another agreement to “continue discussions.”
One must ask: what is the point of these negotiations if Iran refuses to change course? Prior to the recent regional war, five rounds of talks between Tehran and Washington collapsed because the regime insisted on enriching uranium at home. Nothing suggests that position has shifted. In fact, Khamenei’s latest intervention indicates the opposite. And yet, Europe continues to sit at the table, as though dialogue itself were an end rather than a means.
This is the uncomfortable truth: the Islamic Republic has little incentive to compromise, because it believes it can outlast European hesitation. The E3’s reliance on process, on endless rounds of talks, has become a weakness. Tehran recognises that its threats — from quitting the NPT to escalating enrichment — are taken seriously, while Europe’s own threats are greeted with scepticism. When a deadline is set, no one believes it will be enforced.
That leaves Europe facing a dangerous choice. If the snapback mechanism is never activated, the JCPOA collapses in substance even if not in name, and Iran will continue its nuclear programme with impunity. If it is activated, Europe risks a rupture with Russia and China, and possibly the loss of what little leverage remains. But to keep delaying is worse still: it signals to Tehran that Europe will tolerate almost any provocation rather than confront the consequences of enforcement.
What Geneva reveals most starkly is the failure of Europe’s strategic imagination. The nuclear deal was always premised on the idea that Iran would be willing to bargain, that sanctions relief would moderate its behaviour. That premise has not survived contact with reality. Iran has grown bolder, not more restrained. And yet, Brussels, Berlin, Paris and London cling to the framework as though it were sacred scripture.
The uncomfortable conclusion is that Iran has mastered the art of buying time, while Europe has mastered the art of waiting. The E3 are paralysed by their own divisions, fearful of confrontation and desperate to preserve an agreement that Tehran itself openly disregards.
Today’s talks in Geneva may yield polite communiqués and promises of further engagement. But behind the diplomatic choreography lies a harsher reality: Iran is not negotiating in good faith, and Europe is not negotiating from a position of strength. Until that imbalance is addressed, these discussions will remain an exercise in wishful thinking — and Tehran will continue to hold the upper hand.
Main Image: By Fars Media Corporation, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121805158
