European arms manufacturers are expressing growing concerns over their reliance on Chinese cotton, used in propellants for ammunition, as potential supply constraints threaten their ability to ramp up production to support Ukraine in the war effort.
According to a report by the Financial Times, demand for ammunition has surged as Ukraine consumes large quantities of shells in its conflict against Russia.
However, defence contractors are struggling to increase production volumes due to supply constraints in various resource chains, particularly nitrocellulose, also known as “gun cotton.”
The report notes that cotton linters, a byproduct and primary ingredient necessary for nitrocellulose production used in artillery shells and other explosives.
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Leading arms manufacturers, including Swedish Saab and German Rheinmetall, have warned that Europe excessively relies on Chinese lint, which accounts for slightly less than half of the world’s trade.
Rheinmetall’s CEO, Armin Papperger, informed the Financial Times that Europe depends on China, which supplies over 70%” of cotton lint.
“There is a risk that China could withhold lint for geopolitical reasons. That’s why we are buying as much as possible to fill our reserves,” he stated.
It is reported that the EU intends to increase the production of NATO-standard 155mm shells to 1.4 million per year to replenish the stocks of member states depleted due to aid to Ukraine.
To achieve this, a fund of €2 billion has been established to stimulate European explosive production.
“There is a significant deficit of nitrocellulose, causing difficulties in other industries,” said one industry executive, emphasising the necessity of strengthening the response and the European defence industry’s ability to ensure timely supply of ammunition and missiles to Europe.
European leaders have also highlighted concerns over a gunpowder shortage. “We have all recognised the need to counter the deficit of some components, especially powders,” said French President Emmanuel Macron in March after a meeting of Ukraine’s main supporters.
According to the Centre for International Trade, China accounts for almost half of the world’s cotton cellulose market. The largest importers of the material are Germany, Sweden, and Belgium.
Companies have warned that rapidly increasing explosive production could be challenging while dependent on Chinese sources, and there is a risk that China could restrict the export of this material in case of deteriorating relations.
Saab in Sweden stated that dependence on China “may pose an increased risk in the future as we and the industry are expanding capacities and production in Europe,” emphasising that there are currently no supply chain issues.
Concerns about cotton lint supplies arise at a time when Germany and other European countries seek to diversify and “de-risk” their critical material supplies from China, which has been a cheap and reliable outsourcing destination for decades.
Saab stated that in the long term, alternative methods of producing critical materials may need to be considered to ensure the security of the European ammunition ecosystem.
While work on producing cellulose from wood is ongoing, the company stated that it has not yet been put into production.
Rheinmetall, whose subsidiary Nitrochemie produces nitrocellulose, confirmed that it is considering establishing a branch in Lower Saxony as part of a new ammunition production plant.
According to Armin Papperger, the company has accumulated a three-year supply of lint following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and supplies continue monthly from China.
“But the point is that Europe must be independent in the long term,” he emphasised.
Main Image: By Photo: Richard Watt/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=27189883
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