Germany is set to hold a snap national election on February 23rd following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition government.
The unexpected election will reshape the country’s political landscape, with major parties vying for leadership amid growing economic and social challenges. Here’s a look at the main contenders, their standing in the polls, and the key policy issues dominating the election campaign.
The Main Contenders
Germany’s political spectrum features two dominant centrist parties: the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), led by Scholz, and the opposition conservative alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
However, several other parties, including the Greens, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are also expected to play crucial roles in shaping the next government.
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
Chancellor Scholz’s SPD has struggled in the polls following growing dissatisfaction with his coalition government, which also included the Greens and the FDP. The SPD is traditionally supported by working-class and progressive voters but has faced criticism for its handling of economic policy and energy security. Despite its declining popularity, the SPD hopes to rally support by focusing on social justice, workers’ rights, and climate policy.
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU)
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, has positioned itself as the strongest challenger to Scholz’s SPD. The conservative bloc has gained traction by criticizing the government’s handling of inflation, energy prices, and migration policies. The CDU/CSU is expected to campaign on promises of economic stability, stricter immigration controls, and stronger law enforcement policies.
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The far-right AfD has seen a surge in support, particularly in eastern Germany. The party has capitalized on public frustration over high inflation, migration concerns, and dissatisfaction with mainstream parties. However, AfD’s controversial stance on EU relations and democratic norms has led to concerns about its potential role in government. Most major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with AfD.
The Greens
As part of the collapsed coalition, the Greens have faced setbacks in the polls due to growing frustration over climate policies and their impact on the economy. Nevertheless, the party remains a key player, advocating for ambitious climate action, renewable energy investment, and social justice reforms. Their electoral performance will be crucial in determining whether a center-left coalition can be revived.
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
The FDP, the pro-business party that was also part of Scholz’s coalition, has struggled to maintain support. The party’s focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal discipline has not resonated strongly with voters amid economic uncertainty. The FDP’s role in the next government remains uncertain, as it may struggle to cross the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
Several critical policy issues will shape the outcome of the snap election:
Economy and Inflation
Germany’s economic slowdown, coupled with high inflation and rising energy costs, has become a central concern for voters. The CDU/CSU has called for tax cuts and pro-business policies, while the SPD and Greens advocate for increased social spending and energy transition programs. AfD has blamed EU policies for economic woes and calls for reducing Germany’s financial contributions to the bloc.
Energy Policy and Climate Change
Germany’s transition away from fossil fuels has been a divisive issue. The Greens push for aggressive climate policies, including a rapid shift to renewable energy. Meanwhile, conservatives argue for a more balanced approach to avoid economic disruption. AfD opposes many climate policies, advocating for continued use of coal and nuclear power.
Immigration and Security
Migration remains a contentious topic, with CDU/CSU and AfD calling for stricter border controls and tougher asylum laws. The SPD and Greens emphasize humanitarian responsibilities and integration programs. Security concerns, including rising crime rates and domestic extremism, have also become focal points of political debates.
Germany’s Role in Europe, and Foreign Policy
Germany’s position in the European Union and its approach to global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, will be key electoral issues. The SPD and CDU/CSU support continued aid for Ukraine, while AfD has criticized sanctions on Russia. Germany’s defense commitments and NATO obligations are also under scrutiny as geopolitical tensions rise.
Coalition Prospects
Given Germany’s fragmented political landscape, forming a new government will likely require coalition negotiations. The CDU/CSU hopes to lead a center-right coalition, possibly with the FDP. The SPD and Greens might attempt to rebuild a center-left coalition if they secure enough votes. However, the rise of AfD complicates coalition-building, as mainstream parties remain reluctant to work with them.
The upcoming German election on February 23rd will be a decisive moment for the country’s future. With economic uncertainty, energy policy disputes, and growing political fragmentation, voters face a critical choice. The election’s outcome will not only determine Germany’s leadership but also shape its role in the European Union and the global arena for years to come.
