The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is on course to remain the strongest party in local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state, according to an early projection released after polls closed on 14 September.
The WDR/Infratest dimap forecast put the CDU on 34 per cent, the Social Democrats (SPD) on 22.5 per cent, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) on 16.5 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent. The Left was projected at 5.5 per cent and the Free Democrats (FDP) at 3.5 per cent.
The figures point to continuity at the top and a reshaped field below. The CDU’s projected share is broadly unchanged from its 2020 result of 34.3 per cent. The SPD remains second but below its 2020 mark of 24.3 per cent. The AfD’s projected 16.5 per cent would more than triple its 2020 tally of 5.1 per cent, moving it ahead of the Greens, who reached 20.0 per cent five years ago. The FDP, at 3.5 per cent, is projected below its 2020 level of 5.6 per cent, while The Left is above its previous 3.8 per cent.
For readers outside Germany: NRW, home to around 18 million people, is the federal state centred on the Rhine-Ruhr region, which includes Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund and Essen. Local elections there select councils in 396 cities and municipalities and 31 counties, as well as directly elected mayors and district administrators for five-year terms. Voters in the Ruhr area also choose the assembly of the Regionalverband Ruhr, known as the Ruhr parliament.
About 13.7 million eligible voters were called to the polls on Sunday. The ballot allocates thousands of local seats and determines executive office-holders in towns and counties across the state. Where no mayoral or district candidate reaches an absolute majority, run-offs follow under NRW electoral rules.
The vote is the first broad electoral test for the federal government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the snap Bundestag election in February 2025. National attention has focused on whether the result would confirm the CDU’s lead under Merz and how far the AfD could expand in western Germany. Early reporting ahead of the vote framed NRW as a barometer for coalition politics and voter sentiment on economic conditions and migration.
If the projection is borne out by the count, the CDU will consolidate its long-standing position as NRW’s leading local force. The SPD remains the principal competitor in aggregate, though with limited gains compared with its low 2020 baseline. The AfD’s move into third place would mark a significant advance in a western state, where its organisational presence has historically been weaker than in the east. Analysts expect AfD candidates to convert vote share into more council seats, even if executive offices remain out of reach in the larger cities.
For the Greens, a fall from their 2020 high-water mark would reduce leverage in coalition-building across many councils. Local arithmetic in NRW typically requires multi-party agreements to form stable majorities, and a smaller Green caucus narrows options on centre-left combinations in particular. The FDP’s projected result below five per cent would also limit its presence, affecting three- and four-party arrangements in medium-sized authorities. The Left’s modest increase could return it to relevance in more municipalities, albeit from a small base.
The Ruhr parliament election runs alongside the municipal contests and will set the agenda of the regional association on transport, planning and environmental matters affecting more than four million residents. Outcomes there often hinge on the same party trends seen at municipal level, with coalition agreements determining programme priorities.
Counting continued into the evening, with postal ballots still to be incorporated. Broadcasters indicated that updates could shift shares marginally but were unlikely to alter the overall ranking of parties in the first projection. Certified results will be released by local returning officers as counts close, followed by confirmation of any run-offs for mayoral and district posts.
