Giorgia Meloni’s Party Voted Against Second Term for von der Leyen for Domestic Political Reasons

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s decision not to support Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission chief was influenced by concerns over losing her rightwing grassroots supporters, according to analysts.

This move, as politico reports, could reduce her influence over EU decisions.

Re-Election of the President of the Commission

On Thursday, the European Parliament re-elected von der Leyen for another five-year term as the head of the European Commission.

She received support from centre-right, centre-left, liberal, and green groups, securing 401 votes in the 720-member chamber, with 284 votes against her.

Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, which is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, explained their decision post-vote, citing von der Leyen’s shift to the left, particularly on green policies.

Although von der Leyen did not need the support of Meloni’s 24 lawmakers to win, the vote signifies a change from Meloni’s previous efforts to maintain good relations with the European Commission. This relationship is particularly important as Italy deals with substantial public debt.

Giovanni Orsina, a politics professor at Rome’s Luiss University, noted that Meloni values consistency and had pledged not to vote with the left.

Once it became clear that her votes were not needed for von der Leyen’s victory, she adhered to this pledge. Despite this, many Italian commentators expressed concern that the European Commission might now be less lenient towards Italy’s public finances and its efforts to utilize billions of euros from EU post-COVID recovery funds.

Meloni’s decision appears to have been driven by a need to fend off internal competition from her hard-right coalition ally, Matteo Salvini’s League.

Francesco Galietti, from the political risk consultancy Policy Sonar, remarked that Meloni’s fear of exposing herself on the right overshadowed other considerations.

Brothers of Italy is currently polling at nearly 30%, its highest ever, while the League is at around 8.5%. Galietti highlighted the volatility of Italian politics and Meloni’s need to maintain the support of her traditional voters. Before moderating her positions after coming to power in 2022, Meloni was considered further to the right than Salvini and had advocated for Italy to leave the eurozone.

The European Commission declined to comment on the matter. When asked whether she regretted seeking Meloni’s support, von der Leyen stated that the vote validated her approach of garnering support from pro-European, pro-Ukraine, and pro-rule of law factions.

Carlo Calenda, leader of the centrist party Action, criticized Meloni in a radio interview, saying she chose to act as a faction leader rather than a prime minister, which he considered dangerous for Italy’s position in Europe.

Meloni’s victory in Italy’s European Parliament elections last month contrasted with setbacks for French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

However, she faced challenges afterward, including being excluded from a deal on the bloc’s top jobs. Meloni protested that von der Leyen and other leaders were disregarding voters’ wishes by ignoring the surge in right-wing support.

She refused to back von der Leyen along with far-right groups, including the Patriots for Europe, which includes Marine Le Pen’s French National Rally (RN) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz.

Some analysts suggest Meloni avoided aligning with mainstream EU forces ahead of a potential Donald Trump victory in the U.S. elections, which could embolden nationalists within the bloc.

However, Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political risk consultancy Teneo, warned that this strategy might backfire, as Trump’s isolationist policies could compel Italy to strengthen European ties.

In an interview with Corriere della Sera, Meloni expressed confidence in her ability to work with von der Leyen and dismissed the notion that Brussels would penalize Italy in deciding Commission roles.

Despite this, her relationship with Brussels appears more complicated now, and Piccoli suggested that Meloni might find it harder to influence issues like defense and migration, though budget procedures based on pre-established steps are less likely to be affected.

The overarching concern is maintaining Italy’s influence within Europe.