Hostage Diplomacy: Will This be Joe Biden’s legacy?

Has Joe Biden, in the final months of his Presidency, created political space for Vladimir Putin to weaponise “Hostage Diplomacy”?

In a remarkable exchange orchestrated between Russia, Belarus, and Western countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin embraced Vadim Krasikov on a red carpet at Moscow’s airport.

Krasikov, a former officer of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and a convicted assassin, was at the centre of this significant diplomatic manoeuvre.

Krasikov gained notoriety for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a former Chechen insurgent leader, in Berlin in 2019.

The assassination, which German authorities linked directly to Russian state involvement, strained Moscow’s relations with Berlin.

Krasikov’s release became a contentious point, with his case overshadowing the exchange of other prisoners, including prominent Russian political prisoners like Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, both vocal critics of Putin’s regime.

This exchange also included German nationals, one of whom had been sentenced to death in Belarus, a move likely aimed at leveraging Berlin’s acquiescence.

The release of Krasikov surprised many, including Western media and political figures. Notably, Roman Abramovich, a Russian oligarch, reportedly believed that Putin would not agree to exchange Krasikov for Alexei Navalny, the opposition leader who was then still alive.

However, subsequent communications indicated Putin’s willingness to consider such an exchange, demonstrating the high value placed on Krasikov.

The reasons for Putin’s particular interest in Krasikov remain speculative yet telling. There is a narrative suggesting that their relationship dates back to Putin’s time as the deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, during which he was believed to represent the interests of the KGB.

This longstanding connection, if true, would explain Putin’s reluctance to leave Krasikov to the mercy of Western legal systems.

Krasikov’s involvement in other high-profile killings within Russia, including at least two businessmen, further cements his reputation within Russia’s shadowy security and intelligence community.

Krasikov’s release has sparked controversy in Germany

Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledging the “difficult” decision involved in facilitating the swap. According to U.S. media, Krasikov’s release was a crucial element of the exchange deal.

In a notable statement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that U.S. President Joe Biden had “nothing to do with” the historic prisoner exchange.

However, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that Scholz had personally assured Biden he would secure Krasikov’s release as a favour. Biden expressed “great gratitude” to Scholz during a press conference celebrating the exchange.

Reports from German media indicate that there was internal conflict within the German government over the handling of Krasikov’s case. The German Justice Ministry eventually ordered the suspension of Krasikov’s sentence, facilitating his deportation. As part of the exchange, Germany received 12 prisoners, including Russian dissidents and some German nationals.

Also, the family of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, the former Chechen field commander murdered in Berlin, was not informed by German authorities about the exchange of Vadim Krasikov, who had been sentenced to life in prison for the killing. This information was shared by Khangoshvili’s widow, Manana (Raisa) Tsiatiyeva, with Kavkaz.Realii.

Tsiatiyeva noted that rumours of a potential exchange had circulated during Krasikov’s trial, though at the time, lawyers dismissed it as unlikely. After Krasikov was sentenced, there were speculations that an exchange might occur, but it was assumed he would serve a significant portion of his sentence first.

“No one asked us about the exchange. The fact that it happened shows that the opinion of the victims is not important to the German authorities,” Tsiatiyeva remarked. Her statement reflects the family’s frustration and the perceived disregard for their views in the decision-making process.

The broader implications of this exchange go beyond Krasikov’s personal history.

It signals to those engaged in covert operations under Russian direction, particularly those involved in assassinations, that they will not be abandoned. This reassurance is crucial for maintaining loyalty among operatives who undertake dangerous and politically sensitive missions abroad.

Moreover, Putin’s actions are seen as a message to the West that Russia is capable of negotiating even in strained circumstances, suggesting a potential willingness to engage in broader geopolitical negotiations, such as those concerning the war in Ukraine.

The exchange also highlights the potential for blackmail and the management of state secrets. Krasikov, with his deep ties and potential knowledge of sensitive operations and connections, could be a significant liability if he were to cooperate with Western intelligence services.

Thus, his extraction from German custody was not just a matter of loyalty but a safeguard against the exposure of potentially damaging information.

This incident illustrates a broader strategy by Putin to maintain control over those within his sphere of influence and to leverage international diplomacy to Russia’s advantage.

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