Hungary has backed down from its earlier hesitations over extending EU economic sanctions against Russia, paving the way for European ambassadors to approve the measures for another six months. The shift, which follows the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, signals the first signs of Trump’s influence on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s stance.
Hungary’s Shifting Position
Historically, Viktor Orbán has been one of the EU’s most vocal critics of sanctions against Russia, repeatedly calling for their removal and advocating for closer ties with Moscow. During the December 2024 EU summit, Orbán urged fellow leaders to delay the renewal of sanctions until the new US administration was in place. Last week, Hungarian officials reiterated that any decision should be made only after consultations with President Trump, with Orbán himself calling for sanctions to be “thrown out the window.”
Orbán’s Stance on EU Sanctions Against Russia Raises Concerns Over Unity
However, reports now suggest that Hungary has softened its position. Ricard Jozwiak, Europe editor for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, stated on social media: “It seems EU ambassadors will be able to extend economic sanctions on Russia for six months on Friday. Hungary had hesitated, but it looks like the new US administration wants the sanctions to remain in place.”
Trump’s Influence on Orbán
Orbán’s pivot appears to reflect the early impact of Trump’s return to the White House. The Hungarian leader, who has often praised Trump and aligned himself with his policies, has long sought to maintain close ties with the US under Republican leadership. Trump’s strong rhetoric against Russia during his inaugural address and initial policy signals may have prompted Orbán to recalibrate his approach.
By aligning with Trump’s apparent preference to maintain sanctions, Orbán ensures Hungary remains on favourable terms with Washington. This is particularly significant given Hungary’s reliance on US cooperation for its security and economic interests.
Background on Sanctions
The EU first imposed economic sanctions on Russia in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. These sanctions target critical sectors such as finance, energy, and defence, and are renewed every six months with unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
The current round of sanctions is set to expire on 31 January 2025. While renewals have traditionally been routine, Orbán’s initial reluctance raised concerns of a potential veto, prompting EU officials to explore contingency measures to bypass a possible Hungarian block.
A Unified EU Response
Hungary’s decision to step back from confrontation clears the way for EU ambassadors to extend the sanctions until mid-2025. This marks a significant moment of unity for the EU, which has been keen to present a cohesive front in its response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
The shift also demonstrates Trump’s ability to influence European allies and reshape transatlantic relations. While Orbán’s prior stance threatened to disrupt EU consensus, his alignment with Trump’s apparent priorities ensures that the bloc can continue its unified sanctions regime.
Implications for EU-Russia Relations
Although Hungary has allowed the sanctions extension to proceed, Orbán’s broader calls for reassessing the EU’s approach to Russia remain a point of contention. His insistence on improving relations with Moscow reflects a long-standing divide within the EU over how to balance pressure on Russia with economic and geopolitical interests.
The role of Trump’s administration in shaping EU policy will likely grow as the US exerts its influence over European allies. For now, Orbán’s pivot highlights the power of Trump’s diplomatic leverage and its immediate impact on EU decision-making.
Looking Ahead
While the immediate extension of sanctions represents a victory for EU unity, the underlying tensions within the bloc remain unresolved. Orbán’s willingness to challenge EU consensus on Russia could resurface in future debates, especially if US policy shifts or Hungary’s economic ties with Moscow deepen.
As the EU navigates these complexities, Trump’s role as a mediator—or influencer—could become a defining factor in maintaining transatlantic cohesion on sanctions and broader foreign policy issues.
Orbán’s quick alignment with the Trump administration suggests that the Hungarian leader sees an opportunity to strengthen his standing by following Washington’s lead. Whether this dynamic endures will depend on how effectively the US and EU manage their shared challenges in the months ahead.
