EU and US measures are expanding vessel listings and raising compliance risk, while a new EU rule on refined fuels is reshaping trade flows.
Watch: EU Today’s short explainer video on Russia’s shadow fleet and the measures now targeting it
A network of ageing tankers and opaque intermediaries has enabled Russia to keep moving crude and petroleum products by sea despite Western restrictions. Ships associated with the trade often change names, flags and management arrangements, complicating tracking and compliance checks. The Economist argues that this system is now running into an “ideal storm”, as sanctions coverage, market access limits and operational risk begin to reinforce each other.
Sanctions listings have widened. In July 2025, the European Commission said the EU had listed 444 vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet. By October 2025, the EU’s 19th sanctions package increased the total number of designated vessels to 557 and extended bans on EU port access and on the provision of a broad range of services related to maritime transport. As more vessels are designated, operators can face constraints in obtaining routine services, including port calls, technical support, and insurance, and may see counterparties apply stricter screening before accepting cargoes.
The United States has targeted the producer side. On 22 October 2025, the US Treasury announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. In November 2025, Reuters reported that the Treasury said the measures were already reducing Russian oil revenues and were likely to reduce the quantity of oil sold over time. For refiners, traders and shipping firms, the risk is not confined to the producer, but can run through the wider transaction chain, including payments, chartering, freight and insurance.
A further constraint has emerged in the EU’s approach to refined fuels. From 21 January 2026, an EU ban entered into force covering petroleum products obtained in third countries from Russian-origin crude oil, restricting their import into the Union. Reuters reported that Indian diesel exports shifted as the rule took effect, with flows redirected towards West Africa while shipments to the EU fell. The same Reuters reporting described EU customs requirements aimed at verifying crude origin, including a condition that imports come from refineries that have not used Russian crude for at least 60 days prior to shipping.
Enforcement activity has also become more visible at sea. On 22 January 2026, the French navy intercepted the tanker Grinch in the western Mediterranean, with French authorities examining whether it was operating under a false identity and flag. Allies, including the United Kingdom, supported tracking. The case was referred to judicial authorities in Marseille. Such interventions are case-specific, but they can delay voyages and add legal and commercial risk for charterers, lenders and insurers.
French Navy detains sanctioned tanker from Russia in Mediterranean
Operational risk has risen in parallel. In December 2025, Reuters reported that a source in Ukraine’s security service said Ukraine had struck a shadow-fleet tanker, Qendil, in the Mediterranean, describing it as the first such attack outside the Black Sea. Reuters has also reported sea-drone strikes in the Black Sea against vessels that Ukraine says support Russia’s oil exports, alongside higher war-risk insurance costs for shipping in the region. For shipowners and underwriters, higher perceived risk can translate into higher premia, narrower cover and more restrictive underwriting.
These shipping and market measures coincide with weaker Russian energy revenues. Reuters reported that Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues fell by 24 per cent in 2025 to their lowest level since 2020, and noted that oil and gas income accounts for around a quarter of federal budget proceeds. Reuters has also linked Russia’s fiscal position to higher non-oil revenues supported by tax changes, including corporate profit and personal income tax increases.
The shadow fleet is not disappearing, and buyers outside the EU continue to take Russian crude. However, the direction of policy and enforcement is towards a higher-cost and higher-risk operating environment. Wider vessel listings restrict access to services, US designations raise compliance caution, and the EU refined-fuel rule reduces the attractiveness of some processing and re-export routes into Europe.
EU Today’s embedded explainer video sets out how these measures interact and why policymakers are concentrating on the shipping layer of Russia’s energy trade.
Risk in European Waters: The Shadow Fleet, Sanctions Evasion and Safety Gaps
