India Steps In to Transmit Messages Between Zelensky and Putin, Avoiding Mediation Role

India has agreed to serve as a conduit for communications between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. This development comes as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans a brief visit to Kyiv, scheduled for Friday, aimed at fostering dialogue amidst the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

The decision to relay messages between the two leaders comes after weeks of diplomatic manoeuvring by India, a South Asian nation that has tried to maintain a neutral stance in the war. However, despite its involvement in communication efforts, Modi has reportedly ruled out taking on the role of a formal mediator in any potential peace negotiations, citing India’s complex relationship with Russia as a significant factor.

India’s Delicate Diplomatic Position

Sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that while India is willing to facilitate communication between Moscow and Kyiv, its reluctance to mediate in the conflict is influenced by its dependence on Russia for both cheap oil and military equipment. These ties have created a delicate balance for New Delhi as it navigates its relationships with both Moscow and Western powers.

India’s neutrality has been noted in international forums, with the country refraining from taking decisive stances on major international declarations concerning the war. At a summit in Switzerland in June 2024, India notably abstained from signing a joint statement, reflecting its cautious diplomatic positioning.

Modi’s planned trip to Kyiv is set to follow his recent visit to Russia, underlining India’s ongoing efforts to maintain dialogue with both sides. His visit to Ukraine will be brief, reportedly lasting just a few hours, primarily due to security concerns. While expectations for the visit remain modest, the move is seen as an important gesture by Zelensky, who seeks to engage India in the broader quest for peace in the region.

India’s Role in the Global South and Ukraine’s Outreach

Zelensky’s interest in meeting with Modi goes beyond the immediate conflict. For Ukraine, securing the support of major players in the so-called “Global South” has become a critical part of its strategy to isolate Russia diplomatically. India, as a leading nation in this bloc, plays a pivotal role in these efforts. Ukrainian officials see Modi’s visit as an opportunity to explore India’s potential involvement in post-war reconstruction efforts and peace-building initiatives.

While there is no expectation of any major announcements arising from Modi’s trip, discussions are likely to touch upon potential collaborations in various sectors. Sources familiar with the agenda have indicated that agreements in agriculture and defence are under consideration. The visit is seen as an initial step in exploring deeper bilateral ties, particularly as Ukraine seeks to leverage India’s economic and political weight to broaden its international coalition.

Industrial Collaboration and Strategic Partnerships

Beyond the high-level diplomatic discussions, significant developments are occurring in the realm of industrial cooperation between Ukraine and India. Reports suggest that Ukraine’s state-owned enterprise Zorya-Mashproekt is engaged in negotiations with private Indian firms for the joint production of gas turbines. These turbines are used in military vessels, signalling potential defence cooperation between the two nations. The talks mark a strategic effort by both countries to diversify their military-industrial partnerships, given the global shifts caused by the ongoing war.

Further collaborations in the aviation sector are also being discussed, with both Kyiv and New Delhi exploring the possibility of producing aircraft and aircraft engines in India. This move could serve as a means for both nations to strengthen their defence capabilities while also fostering long-term economic ties.

Poland and India’s Expanding Diplomatic Footprint

Before arriving in Kyiv, Modi is scheduled to make a stop in Poland. This will mark the first visit of an Indian leader to Poland in four decades, underscoring India’s growing diplomatic engagement with Central and Eastern Europe. Poland, which has emerged as a critical ally to Ukraine during the war, may also serve as a bridge in discussions between Modi and Ukrainian officials.

India’s outreach to both Ukraine and Poland reflects its broader strategy of expanding its global influence, particularly in regions that are playing central roles in the geopolitical reshuffling caused by the war. Modi’s visits are seen as part of India’s longer-term efforts to strengthen its diplomatic presence in Europe, while carefully balancing its historic ties with Russia.