The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has created an unprecedented strategic dilemma for Iran. While Tehran’s backing of Hezbollah and other regional militias has long been a cornerstone of its influence across the Middle East, recent events have forced Iran to reassess its approach. Notably, the killing of senior Iranian and Hezbollah figures in Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah has created a complex situation for the leadership in Tehran, with significant internal and external repercussions.
In a recent address, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated the familiar rhetoric of unity and resistance against Israel, calling on the Muslim world to unite against the Jewish state. However, his words did not present any novel strategies or significant commitments. Observers have noted that Iran appears hesitant to fully involve itself in the escalating situation, preferring instead to let its proxies take the brunt of the confrontation.
Tehran’s cautious stance seems to reflect an internal debate on how to respond. Iranian media have reported the death of General Abbas Rashan, a senior commander in the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), killed in an Israeli strike alongside Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
This loss suggests that Israel’s operation has targeted significant Iranian and Hezbollah leadership figures, and Tehran is now weighing its options on how to respond.
Iran’s Strategic Calculations
Iran’s hesitation to become fully involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict differs significantly from its earlier posturing. The unexpected intensity of Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah, which Tehran likely did not foresee, has caught Iranian leadership off guard.
For years, Iran believed that Israel would treat its northern front as a secondary issue, focusing primarily on Hamas in the south. However, Israel’s shift in strategy, prioritising the elimination of Hezbollah as a direct threat, has forced Iran to reassess its own involvement.
It appears that Iran was expecting a prolonged and low-level conflict, where Hezbollah would exchange sporadic rocket fire with Israel while maintaining its position of strength. The sudden and severe Israeli response has disrupted these plans, leading Iranian leaders to question their next steps.
Tehran now faces a crucial decision: whether to escalate the conflict by increasing its direct involvement or to find a way to de-escalate and protect its interests through diplomacy.
Hezbollah’s Role and Iranian Proxies
Iran’s reliance on Hezbollah as a strategic counterbalance to Israel is well documented. For decades, Hezbollah has served as Tehran’s most powerful proxy force in the region, capable of significant military action against Israel. However, with Hezbollah now facing serious setbacks in the current conflict, Iran is confronted with the possibility of losing one of its most valuable assets.
In addition to Hezbollah, Iran has also cultivated a network of other proxy forces across the region, including Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. However, these groups do not have the same strategic significance as Hezbollah in the context of direct conflict with Israel. The Houthis, for instance, have launched missile attacks in support of the broader anti-Israel resistance, but their capability to impact the conflict remains limited.
Diplomatic Options and Internal Divisions
Internally, Iran’s leadership is divided on how to proceed. On the one hand, there are those who advocate for a more cautious approach, prioritising diplomacy and avoiding a full-scale confrontation with Israel. Figures such as Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have been engaged in diplomatic efforts, particularly in New York, where he has been pushing for the resumption of nuclear talks and the easing of sanctions.
On the other hand, hardliners within the IRGC, especially the Quds Force, are likely to push for a stronger military response. The IRGC, which functions as a state within a state, wields considerable influence in Iran’s foreign and military policies, and its leadership may be unwilling to allow Hezbollah’s power to be diminished without a significant response.
The Economic and Domestic Factors
Iran’s economy is struggling under the weight of international sanctions, and there is growing discontent within the country about the regime’s foreign interventions. The economic costs of supporting Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other proxy forces across the region have become increasingly burdensome for the Iranian public, who have long questioned why their country’s resources are being spent abroad rather than on improving conditions at home.
The Iranian opposition has been vocal about this, with social media campaigns mocking the regime’s focus on external conflicts while the domestic situation deteriorates. One prominent example is the “cutlet” hashtag that emerged after the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, referring to him derisively as “turned into a cutlet.” This sentiment continues to reflect the deep dissatisfaction with the regime’s foreign policy priorities.
Read also:
Israeli Airstrike Eliminates Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut
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