In what may prove to be one of the most explosive diplomatic leaks of the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly warned European allies of the danger that Washington could betray Kyiv — leaving Ukraine exposed without firm security guarantees.
The warnings emerged from what German magazine Der Spiegel claims to be an English-language summary of a confidential multiparty call between European and Ukrainian leaders.
According to the document, Macron cautioned that “there is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees.” The tone of the discussion remained sober throughout: for Macron, the possibility of a sudden shift by Washington represented “a big danger” for Volodymyr Zelenskyy and for Ukraine more broadly.
Chancellor Merz reportedly added a further note of caution, telling Zelenskyy that Kyiv needed to be “very careful” — and warning that U.S. negotiators were “playing games with both you and us.” The reference was widely interpreted as directed at the U.S. envoy mission to Moscow, involving figures such as Steve Witkoff.
The scepticism did not end there. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, present on the call, reportedly echoed the warnings, declaring “we must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys.” A similar sentiment, reportedly shared by Mark Rutte, underlined a growing mood of mistrust in European capitals towards Washington’s manoeuvres.
That such a blunt display of transatlantic mistrust should emerge from within a supposedly confidential diplomatic call is notable. For Brussels and Paris, long accustomed to balancing alliance solidarity with Washington against European strategic autonomy, the leak — and, more importantly, its contents — risk opening a dangerous rift.
A serious alarm — but is the note real?
There are reasons to treat the now-infamous note with caution. At present, there is no independent way to verify its authenticity. The major English-language outlets, including The Guardian, have been unable to access the original note or confirm the details contained therein.
Nevertheless, Der Spiegel reports it spoke with “several participants of the call,” two of whom said the quotes attributed to Macron and Merz were “accurately reproduced.” The alleged comments have been met with official denials: the office of Macron has rejected the report that he used the word “betray,” while the German chancellery refused to comment on “individual media reports” of private discussions.
Still, if the leak is genuine — or even partially accurate — it marks a potentially decisive moment. It suggests not only that the European leadership harbours deep reservations about U.S. intentions, but that they are prepared to voice them, however discreetly, even to Kyiv’s own president.
Why Europe’s patience is fraying
This is no isolated outburst of criticism: these anxieties are rooted in a deeper European unease about Washington’s recent diplomacy and what it might portend for the post-war order in Ukraine. Over the past months, Macron has frequently called on Europe to develop “strategic sovereignty” — warning that a resurgent U.S., increasingly focused on confrontations in Asia, might slip from its traditional European commitments.
European capitals have balked repeatedly at U.S.-backed proposals for short-term ceasefires and peace deals that critics argue would reward Russian aggression and leave Kyiv’s territorial losses effectively sealed.
In that context — of suspicious deals, awkward phone calls and a shifting U.S. posture — Macron’s and Merz’s warnings appear as the expression of a deeper continental nervousness. Many in Brussels fear that once Washington secures a deal with Moscow — perhaps even at Kyiv’s expense — Europe could be left scrambling to salvage both the war’s outcome and the region’s broader security architecture.
What this could mean for the war and diplomacy
If European leaders are indeed rallying around increasingly distrustful views of U.S. mediation, the repercussions could be profound. On the one hand, it may prompt a renewed push for a truly European-led security guarantee to Ukraine — perhaps through a strengthened military and diplomatic role for the European Union or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization independent of U.S. whims. On the other, it risks undermining transatlantic unity at a time when collective resolve remains central to deterring Russian aggression.
For Kyiv, already battered by nearly four years of war, the implications are chilling. The warnings from Paris and Berlin suggest that some of Ukraine’s closest allies suspect that Washington may pursue a peace deal with Russia that trims — perhaps drastically — Kyiv’s territorial ambitions or leaves its borders insecure.
The fact that such discussions are happening, privately and urgently, should give pause — not just to leaders, but to citizens. At the heart of the problem lies a fundamental question: when the most powerful external backer proposes to negotiate Ukraine’s future, who is really writing the terms?
If the leak is genuine, as Der Spiegel insists, then for European leaders the answer is clear — and it is not pretty. Their warning to Zelenskyy may yet become a rallying cry for Europe to regain control of its own destiny — and to ensure that Ukraine’s fate is decided in Kyiv, not Washington or Moscow.
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