The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump that Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a Gaza peace deal marks the most significant diplomatic development in the region in months.
At its core, the proposal seeks to exchange hostages and prisoners, halt fighting, and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. If approved by the Israeli cabinet, a ceasefire could come into effect within hours.
Yet beneath the celebratory headlines and optimistic soundbites lies a fragile arrangement that may prove difficult to sustain. Critical details remain unresolved, and the political calculations on both sides could yet derail the process before it fully takes hold.
The Structure of the Agreement
The outline of the agreement is straightforward but ambitious. In the first phase, all remaining Israeli hostages are to be released, with Monday set as the target date for their return. In parallel, Israel will free an as-yet-undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces will begin a phased withdrawal from parts of Gaza, creating space for humanitarian aid convoys to enter the territory.
Hamas has publicly confirmed its assent to the deal. However, a Palestinian source told the BBC that the group has not received the final list of prisoners to be released in exchange. This outstanding issue could become a sticking point: prisoner swaps have historically been among the most contentious aspects of any negotiation between Israel and Palestinian factions. Disagreements over names, numbers, or categories of detainees have derailed previous agreements at the last moment.
Israel’s government is due to meet around 14:00 Jerusalem time (12:00 BST) to give its formal approval. Should the cabinet vote in favour, a ceasefire is expected to follow shortly thereafter. For families of hostages in Israel and civilians in Gaza, this decision could mark the beginning of a desperately needed respite from months of bloodshed.
Political Calculations in Jerusalem
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this agreement represents both an opportunity and a risk. Publicly, he hailed it as “a great day” for Israel. He knows that bringing hostages home carries immense political weight; failure to do so has fuelled criticism of his government for months. Securing their release would be a significant personal and political victory.
However, Netanyahu also leads a fragile coalition that includes hardline factions opposed to concessions toward Hamas. Any prisoner release, particularly if it includes individuals convicted of serious attacks, could provoke backlash within his cabinet and among his right-wing supporters. Some members of his coalition may view a ceasefire as a strategic pause that benefits Hamas rather than Israel’s security interests.
Netanyahu has long balanced between hawkish rhetoric and pragmatic security policy. This deal will test his ability to maintain that balance under intense domestic scrutiny.
Hamas’s Calculus and Constraints
For Hamas, agreeing to a ceasefire now may reflect both strategic necessity and tactical calculation. After months of Israeli military operations, the group faces mounting pressure inside Gaza, where infrastructure has been shattered and the humanitarian situation is dire. Accepting the first phase of the peace deal allows Hamas to claim a political victory—securing prisoner releases—while alleviating some of the suffering in the territory.
Yet Hamas also has its own internal dynamics to navigate. Different factions within the movement may have divergent views on whether this agreement represents a step toward long-term de-escalation or merely a temporary lull. If the list of prisoners fails to meet internal expectations, or if Israeli withdrawals are perceived as insufficient, more radical elements could attempt to undermine the process.
The American Role
The announcement underscores Washington’s renewed diplomatic assertiveness in the Middle East under Trump’s second term. The administration has invested significant political capital in securing this initial breakthrough, working closely with Egyptian mediators. The White House is framing the deal as the first phase of a broader plan that could eventually lead to a more durable ceasefire and reconstruction of Gaza.
Trump’s involvement also carries political symbolism. During his first term, his administration brokered the Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab states. This latest effort is being cast as part of that legacy: the U.S. as the indispensable broker in a volatile region. Success would bolster Trump’s foreign policy credentials; failure would highlight the limits of American influence.
International Reaction and Public Sentiment
Reactions abroad have been swift. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the moment as “a profound relief that will be felt around the world.” European capitals have welcomed the news cautiously, viewing it as a potential opening for renewed diplomacy. Humanitarian agencies have urged both sides to ensure the rapid and unhindered delivery of aid into Gaza once the ceasefire begins.
On the ground, the emotional response has been palpable. In Gaza, Palestinians celebrated in the streets, seeing in the agreement a rare moment of hope after months of bombardment and deprivation. In Israel, hostage families greeted the news with cautious optimism, aware that promises of release have faltered before. The sense of relief is tempered by an acute understanding of how fragile such agreements can be.
The Road Ahead: Unresolved Questions
While the agreement is a diplomatic breakthrough, its success depends on several unresolved factors. Hamas’s acceptance may hinge on the specific individuals Israel agrees to release. Any last-minute disagreements could stall implementation. The initial pullback is expected to be limited. How far and how fast Israeli forces withdraw will shape Hamas’s response.
Ceasefire violations are common in past Israel-Hamas truces. Without robust monitoring, even minor incidents could trigger escalation.
This first step does not resolve the core political issues—governance of Gaza, Israel’s security concerns, or a long-term political settlement. Each of these will require delicate negotiation.
A Moment of Opportunity, Not Resolution
The first phase of Trump’s Gaza peace deal offers a rare window of opportunity in a conflict that has defied resolution for decades. The proposed exchange of hostages and prisoners, coupled with a ceasefire and humanitarian access, could ease immediate suffering and build confidence for further talks.
But this is not, by any measure, the end of the conflict. It is a preliminary arrangement whose durability will depend on political will, disciplined implementation, and sustained international engagement. Both Israel and Hamas face internal pressures that could quickly unravel this fragile truce.
For now, families on both sides are daring to hope. Whether that hope endures will depend on decisions made in the coming hours and days—decisions that could set the course for Gaza’s future.
Click here for more News & Current Affairs at EU Today
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
