Russia has issued a stark warning to South Korea regarding potential arms supplies to Ukraine, as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war continue to escalate. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko urged Seoul to “soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps,” cautioning that South Korean weaponry used against Russian forces would severely damage bilateral relations.
The warning follows reports that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing the possibility of sending arms to Ukraine. This development is seen as a potential response to North Korea’s reported deployment of troops to Russia, further entrenching Pyongyang’s involvement in the ongoing war. In October, Seoul had signalled its willingness to supply arms to Kyiv if North Korean soldiers were sent to aid Moscow—a scenario that has now materialised.
North Korean Troop Deployment Confirmed
Reports from multiple sources, including U.S., South Korean, and Ukrainian officials, suggest that over 10,000 North Korean soldiers were dispatched to Russia in October. Ukrainian and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that some of these troops are now engaged in frontline combat, particularly in the Belgorod and Kursk regions, close to Ukraine’s borders.
The deployment of North Korean forces has raised alarm in Seoul, where officials fear a heightened threat to South Korean security. Analysts suggest that Moscow may be offering advanced military technologies to Pyongyang in exchange for its support. South Korea’s leadership reportedly views North Korea’s direct involvement in the conflict as a destabilising factor with implications for regional and global security.
Russian-South Korean Relations Under Strain
Deputy Minister Rudenko’s statement underscored the potential consequences for South Korea if it proceeds with arms deliveries to Ukraine. “The possible use of South Korean weapons to kill Russian citizens will fully destroy relations between our countries,” he warned, adding that Moscow would respond with measures that could undermine South Korea’s security. He called on Seoul to prioritise “long-term national interests” over external influences.
This rhetoric builds on earlier warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in June cautioned South Korea against supplying arms to Kyiv. Speaking in Vietnam following a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Putin suggested that any such move would provoke a response detrimental to Seoul’s interests. The two leaders had recently signed a mutual defence treaty, solidifying military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Strategic Calculations in Seoul
South Korea’s deliberations on supplying arms to Ukraine come amid growing concerns about Pyongyang’s expanding military cooperation with Moscow. President Yoon and senior officials reportedly view this partnership as a threat not only to Ukraine but also to South Korea’s strategic stability. Observers speculate that Seoul’s decision will weigh the risks of provoking Russia against the potential benefits of countering North Korea’s increasing assertiveness.
Seoul’s stance is part of a broader geopolitical balancing act. While South Korea has traditionally maintained a cautious approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, it has faced mounting pressure from Western allies to take a firmer stand. The prospect of arms supplies to Kyiv marks a significant shift in policy and could place South Korea more firmly within the Western bloc’s support for Ukraine.
North Korea’s Role in the Russia-Ukraine War
North Korea’s involvement in the war has expanded in recent months, with reports of troop deployments and growing logistical support for Moscow. Ukrainian officials have reported the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that around 11,000 North Korean troops are stationed in the Kursk region, where clashes with Ukrainian forces are intensifying.
The addition of North Korean reinforcements comes as Moscow faces challenges in countering Ukraine’s territorial advances. Ukrainian forces made significant inroads into Russian-held territories in the Kursk region earlier this year, marking one of Kyiv’s most substantial offensives since the war began. Analysts from the Institute of War (ISW) note that recent Russian advances in the area may be bolstered by the arrival of North Korean troops.
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