The Israeli cabinet is set to vote on a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon on Tuesday, following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conditional approval of the deal during a security consultation. A spokesperson for Netanyahu confirmed the upcoming vote and suggested the agreement is expected to pass.
This development comes as Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange fire along the Lebanese border. Despite progress in negotiations, officials on both sides caution that any misstep could derail the fragile talks. A Lebanese official involved in the discussions indicated that a ceasefire announcement could be made within 24 hours.
Mixed Reactions to Ceasefire Efforts
In Israel, news of the potential ceasefire has elicited mixed reactions. Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right National Security Minister, described the proposal as a “historic missed opportunity” to eliminate Hezbollah, reflecting his broader opposition to ceasefire negotiations with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Former Defence Minister Benny Gantz has urged greater transparency, calling on Netanyahu to disclose the details of the proposed agreement to the public. Gantz, who resigned from the war cabinet earlier this year over disagreements with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza conflict, underscored the importance of public scrutiny for the deal.
Residents in northern Israel, many of whom were displaced by the conflict, have also expressed scepticism. Nizan Zeevi, a resident near Kyriat Shimona, criticised the proposal as a “surrender agreement,” drawing parallels to the ceasefire that ended the 2006 Lebanon War. Zeevi voiced concerns that Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force could eventually re-establish positions near the border, endangering Israeli civilians.
International Mediation and US Involvement
The ceasefire negotiations have been driven by US envoy Amos Hochstein, who described the talks as constructive but acknowledged the challenges in reaching an agreement. Hochstein held meetings with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, a key interlocutor with Hezbollah, before travelling to Israel last week.
The proposed agreement aims for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, which some hope could serve as a foundation for a lasting peace. US officials, including White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, have expressed cautious optimism about the deal. However, Kirby warned that progress remains tentative until all parties formally commit to the agreement.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller echoed this sentiment, highlighting the frustrations inherent in the negotiation process. Despite this, Hochstein has reportedly conveyed to Israeli officials that further delays or a negative response could result in the US withdrawing from its mediation efforts.
Escalation and Strategic Risks
The backdrop to the negotiations includes an escalating conflict that began over a year ago when Hezbollah launched an attack on Israeli-controlled territory in support of Hamas. This followed the widely condemned Hamas attacks on southern Israel in October 2023.
Since the outbreak of hostilities, Israel has conducted a major military campaign in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah leadership and infrastructure. These actions have included a ground invasion and precision strikes, such as the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s Home Front Command has also issued warnings about the heightened risk of rocket fire from Hezbollah ahead of the cabinet vote.
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