In an opinion piece for The Times, Michael Clarke, visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London, highlights Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region last week as a move that has sent shockwaves through both Moscow and Kyiv’s Western allies. This bold and unexpected operation marks a significant escalation in the conflict, one that unmistakably bears the imprint of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
As Michael Clarke, visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London, notes, “Zelensky is desperate to reverse the narrative that Ukraine is losing its war,” and this latest manoeuvre could be his riskiest yet.
For months, Zelensky has been pushing his military chiefs to take the offensive, driven by the need to change the perception that Ukraine is on the back foot. Despite successes in the Black Sea and Crimea, Ukraine’s ongoing territorial losses in eastern Ukraine have overshadowed these victories.
Clarke observes, “Given Ukraine’s manpower and resources problems, they were hesitant. But Zelensky is desperate to reverse the narrative that Ukraine is losing its war.” The incursion into Kursk is the culmination of this pressure—a strategic counterpunch designed to shock both Russia and the world.
A Bold but Dangerous Move
The decision to strike into Russian territory is unprecedented in the modern era. As Clarke points out, “Moscow hasn’t seen a metre of its own territory invaded by anybody since 1941.” The psychological impact of this operation is likely to be profound, not only on the Russian public but also within the Kremlin. The images emerging from Kursk will be difficult for the Russian leadership to manage, potentially undermining the narrative that the war is being fought far from Russian soil.
However, this move comes with significant risks. Clarke warns, “It will also make some Western leaders queasy as items of NATO ground equipment are now being used inside Russia—another threshold crossed.” Kyiv did not seek Western approval for this operation, knowing it would likely be denied. By proceeding unilaterally, Ukraine has crossed a dangerous line, potentially jeopardizing its relationship with key allies. More importantly, this action forces Moscow’s hand, leaving it with no choice but to respond with overwhelming force.
Strategic Goals and Military Realities
The incursion into Kursk is not a simple raid. Reports indicate that significant Ukrainian forces, including elements from the 22nd and 88th mechanised brigades and the 80th Air Assault Brigade, have crossed the border. These experienced units, numbering between 6,000 and 10,000 troops, are supported by advanced equipment, including American M2 Bradleys and German Marders. Clarke notes, “The Ukrainian army evidently intends to stand and fight in the pocket it has created and may yet be reinforced.”
The strategic goals of this operation are twofold. Firstly, Kyiv aims to deliver a psychological blow to Moscow, demonstrating that Ukraine can strike deep into Russian territory. Secondly, the operation seeks to draw high-quality Russian forces away from critical fronts in the Donbas region, where Ukrainian troops are under severe pressure. “Ukrainian chiefs will be hoping this attack has the effect of drawing high-quality Russian forces away from other fronts,” Clarke explains. However, the success of this operation hinges on how long Ukrainian forces can maintain their presence in Kursk before Russian reinforcements overwhelm them.
The Political and Military Calculus
Zelensky’s decision to authorise this operation underscores his willingness to take significant risks to alter the course of the war. However, as Clarke highlights, this move is not without its critics. “Zelensky’s critics will argue that this is a misuse both of the lives of the troops and the heavy metal that Ukraine desperately needs further south in the Donbas.” Unlike the Inchon landings during the Korean War, which successfully turned the tide of the conflict, this operation is unlikely to achieve a decisive military victory. Instead, its success will be measured by how much it can disrupt Russian forces and by its psychological impact on the Kremlin.
The political implications for Zelensky are also significant. By taking such a bold step, he risks both domestic and international backlash if the operation fails. The Kursk incursion could either bolster his standing as a decisive leader or lead to increased scrutiny and criticism if the situation deteriorates. Clarke concludes, “The continued existence of this incursion inside Russian territory will be simply intolerable to President Putin,” suggesting that the stakes for both sides could not be higher.
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