In a seismic ruling that could reshape the landscape of French politics, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, has been found guilty of misappropriation of public funds.
The verdict, handed down by a Paris court, threatens to upend her bid for the presidency in 2027, raising urgent questions about whether judicial intervention has been wielded to alter the course of an election still three years away.
The case, which has ensnared eight National Rally MEPs and their twelve parliamentary aides, centres on the alleged embezzlement of European Parliament funds. According to the prosecution, these funds—intended for parliamentary aides—were instead diverted to pay party staff, resulting in a financial loss of €2.9 million. Le Pen herself is accused of misappropriating €474,000. Dressed in a navy-blue suit, she shook her head in visible disapproval as the verdict was delivered.
Although the judge acknowledged that Le Pen had not personally profited from the scheme, he underscored the financial enrichment of her party, in direct contravention of party funding regulations. “There was no personal enrichment … but there was the enrichment of a party,” he declared.
A Political Earthquake
While the court has yet to announce the full sentences for the accused, the implications for Le Pen’s political future are potentially devastating. The prosecution has recommended a €300,000 fine, a prison sentence of up to ten years, and a five-year ban from holding public office—an outcome that would eliminate her from contention in the 2027 presidential race.
However, the three-judge panel retains discretion over the sentencing, meaning they could impose a more lenient penalty, allowing Le Pen to remain eligible to run for office. Yet, if they opt for the full ban, it would deal a fatal blow to her political aspirations, which she has previously described as tantamount to “political death.”
An Election Shaped by the Courts?
Le Pen has sought to dismiss the possibility of an outright political ban, telling La Tribune Dimanche on Sunday: “Personally, I’m not nervous. But I can see why people think I might be.”
“The judges have the power of life or death over the movement. But I don’t think they will go so far as to do it,” she added, expressing confidence in her ability to contest the next election.
Yet, political observers have been quick to highlight the extraordinary timing of the case, which comes as Le Pen enjoys a surge in popularity. With President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, the National Rally leader has emerged as the leading opposition figure, consistently polling ahead of potential rivals. For her supporters, the verdict reeks of a political manoeuvre aimed at ensuring she never gets the opportunity to translate this electoral momentum into victory at the ballot box.
France has a long history of legal entanglements derailing political careers—former Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac both faced legal woes. Yet the question lingers: would Le Pen, with her growing electoral legitimacy, have faced the same level of scrutiny were she not the most formidable challenger to the political establishment?
The Future of the National Rally
Beyond Le Pen’s personal fate, the verdict raises serious questions about the future of the National Rally. Should she be banned from running, the party will be forced to identify a new candidate, with its youthful president, Jordan Bardella, widely seen as her natural successor. However, without Le Pen’s personal brand and decades of political experience, the party could struggle to maintain its recent gains.
Le Pen has spent years detoxifying the party’s image, distancing it from the xenophobic and antisemitic controversies of its past under her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Whether this ruling unravels that work remains an open question.
For now, all eyes remain on the Paris courtroom as the final sentences are awaited. If the judges enforce the full ban from public office, it could mark the dramatic end of Marine Le Pen’s political career—just as she stood on the cusp of power.
Regardless of the outcome, the ruling will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of France’s far-right movement. Whether by legal constraint or electoral challenge, the 2027 presidential race is already being defined, not by the voters, but by the courts.
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