Maldives' Military Pivot: China Deal Signals Shift Away from India

The Maldives, a strategically located archipelago in the Indian Ocean, has recently made headlines with its decision to sign a “military assistance” deal with China, marking a significant shift away from its historical ties with India.

This move comes amidst escalating tensions between Male, the capital of Maldives, and New Delhi, following the controversial order for Indian troops to vacate the archipelago.

The agreement, signed between the Maldives Minister of Defense and a senior Chinese military official, underscores a burgeoning alliance aimed at fostering stronger bilateral relations between Male and Beijing.

The Ministry of Defense’s statement on X, formerly Twitter, confirmed China’s provision of military assistance to the Republic of Maldives on a complimentary basis.

Minister of Defence @mgmaumoon and Major General Zhang Baoqun, Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of the People's Republic of China, signed an agreement on China's provision of military assistance gratis to the Republic of Maldives, fostering… pic.twitter.com/OeaAe2QZr9

— Ministry of Defence (@MoDmv) March 4, 2024

Historically, India and the Maldives have maintained amicable relations. However, recent political developments, notably the election of President Mohamed Muizzu on an “India Out” platform, have strained the once cordial ties between the two nations.

Muizzu’s ascent to power has signalled a shift towards closer alignment with China, prompting concerns in New Delhi over its diminishing influence in the region.

The rift between India and the Maldives deepened as Muizzu’s administration ordered the departure of Indian troops stationed in the archipelago.

These troops, numbering around 89, were deployed to assist in operating three reconnaissance aircraft provided by India for monitoring maritime borders.

The withdrawal of Indian military personnel, scheduled to be completed by May 10th, underscores the evolving dynamics of geopolitical alliances in the Indian Ocean region.

India’s response to the Maldives’ pivot towards China includes plans to replace military personnel with civilian staff to oversee the operation of the aforementioned reconnaissance aircraft.

Additionally, the Indian navy has announced measures to enhance operational surveillance from the island of Minicoy in the Lakshadweep islands, strategically positioned north of the Maldives.

The Maldives’ overtures towards China have been further evidenced by recent developments, including the docking of a Chinese marine research vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 03, in Male.

Moreover, President Muizzu’s visit to Beijing in January resulted in the signing of various agreements spanning infrastructure, energy, and agriculture sectors, highlighting the deepening economic and strategic ties between the Maldives and China.

India’s apprehensions regarding China’s expanding presence in the Indian Ocean region, particularly in countries such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka, reflect a broader geopolitical contest for influence and strategic advantage.

As China seeks to assert its presence through infrastructure projects and economic partnerships, traditional allies of India are increasingly gravitating towards Beijing, posing significant challenges to India’s regional influence and security interests.