El Pais Reveals Moldova’s Strategy for Transnistria: Path to 2038

Moldovan authorities are reportedly discussing a comprehensive plan to reintegrate the breakaway region of Transnistria by 2038.

The details of this plan were highlighted in a recent publication by the Spanish newspaper El Pais, with further dissemination through Moldovan and Romanian media, notably Newsmaker. This proposed strategy, seemingly inspired by Germany’s reunification model, aims to restore full Moldovan sovereignty over the region, currently under the influence of Russian forces.

The El Pais report, available to subscribers, suggests that a consultancy firm developed this plan at the request of the Moldovan government. The existence of such a plan had previously not been disclosed publicly. According to the Spanish newspaper, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has inadvertently created a unique set of circumstances, potentially facilitating Moldova’s efforts to politically and economically reintegrate Transnistria.

Central to the plan is the objective of achieving full control over security and public order in the Transnistrian region by 2038.

A significant component of this roadmap involves the eventual withdrawal of Russian military presence, contingent upon demands from the Transnistrian authorities themselves. This aspect is particularly sensitive, given the region’s reliance on Russian support and the presence of a significant Russian-speaking population.

Initial steps reportedly include negotiations between Chisinau and Transnistrian authorities to prepare the region’s judicial framework by training judges, prosecutors, and lawyers.

Furthermore, the Moldovan government is purportedly planning to offer temporary compensation for gas prices, currently subsidised by Moscow, to ease the transition for Transnistrian residents.

The plan outlines a census to be conducted under Moldovan auspices within the next two years, with a potential referendum on the region’s status tentatively scheduled for 2027.

Concurrently, efforts will be made to dismantle ammunition depots and replace Russian “peacekeeping” forces with an international mission. This strategic shift aims to bolster the region’s stability and security during the transition period.

From 2028 to 2031, the proposed “roadmap” anticipates the phasing out of the Transnistrian rouble in favour of the Moldovan leu, alongside financial integration measures. These include support for small and medium-sized enterprises, the allocation of regional budgetary funds, and pension system reforms, ensuring a unified minimum pension across both sides of the Dniester River.

While the Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration has not explicitly confirmed the specifics of the El Pais article, it stated that the government’s actions align with its broader national policies and programmes, including those outlined in the Reintegration Policy Bureau’s action plans.

Former Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Alexandru Flenchea, expressed scepticism about the origins of the publication, noting a lack of confirmation from Moldovan officials cited in the report. He highlighted the sensitive nature of the Transnistrian issue, emphasising the importance of discretion to maintain stability and peace during the complex negotiation process.

President Maia Sandu has previously acknowledged the possibility of a “geopolitical opportunity” emerging in the coming years that could resolve the Transnistrian conflict. This view suggests a cautious optimism within the Moldovan government regarding a long-term resolution, leveraging changing regional dynamics and international support.