As NATO approaches a series of key meetings in 2025, European defence has emerged as a central topic of debate, reflecting heightened global tensions and regional security challenges.
An informal retreat of EU leaders on 3 February at Château de Limont in Belgium has underscored the urgency of coordinated defence strategies, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer invited to participate in discussions over lunch and dinner, respectively.
Defence Spending Under Review
Defence spending remains one of NATO’s most divisive issues, as the alliance seeks to balance transatlantic commitments with increasing European responsibility. The NATO target of 2% of GDP for defence spending has long been a contentious benchmark, with only a handful of member states exceeding it, while others, such as Canada and Spain, continue to lag. Recent proposals suggest a compromise of raising the target to 3%, reflecting broader economic constraints while acknowledging the need for increased investment.
Mark Rutte, speaking ahead of NATO’s upcoming defence ministers’ meeting in June, noted the necessity of equitable burden-sharing. “Effective defence is a common good benefitting all Europeans,” he stated, echoing sentiments from António Costa, President of the European Council, in a January letter.
Costa emphasised that the EU must take greater responsibility for its defence in light of “Russia’s war against Ukraine, growing hybrid and cyberattacks on member states, and the situation in the Middle East.” He urged leaders to consider how increased defence spending could simultaneously enhance the EU’s economic competitiveness and cohesion.
The Role of U.S. Troops in Europe
The presence of approximately 100,000 American troops in Europe remains critical to NATO’s strategy, but discussions on reducing this figure by 20% are underway. Such a move would place greater financial and operational responsibilities on European allies.
Eastern European nations, including the Baltic states, have expressed strong support for maintaining robust U.S. troop levels, citing Russia’s military aggression as an ongoing threat. Meanwhile, the EU’s focus on strengthening its own defence capabilities complements NATO’s objectives. As Costa noted,
“The goal of strengthening European defence should be taken into account in all relevant Union policies.”
Ukraine at the Heart of NATO’s Agenda
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate NATO’s policy priorities. While significant military aid has been provided to Kyiv, pressure is mounting for NATO to supply more advanced weaponry to counter Russian advances effectively.
However, U.S. strategy appears to be shifting towards economic measures. Sanctions and financial pressure on Russia are being prioritised in hopes of encouraging negotiations. Still, many analysts and officials within NATO warn that military support will remain indispensable. “We cannot afford to let Ukraine fight this battle alone,” said one European diplomat familiar with NATO’s deliberations.
Costa’s January letter also highlighted the importance of resilience in the face of hybrid and cyberattacks, signalling that Europe’s security threats extend beyond the battlefield in Ukraine.
Strengthening Partnerships and European Defence
The informal EU retreat at Château de Limont will place particular emphasis on the intersection of European defence and its transatlantic partnership with NATO. EU leaders explored options for developing defence capabilities, mobilising private funding, and leveraging EU budgetary instruments.
Costa articulated a vision of Europe as a “more resilient and reliable security and defence actor,” positioning the EU as a stronger transatlantic partner within NATO. Discussions also covered deepening partnerships and aligning defence goals with economic policies to reinforce competitiveness.
Keir Starmer, attending the retreat in his capacity as UK Prime Minister, is expected to reaffirm the UK’s commitment to NATO and European security. His presence underscores the UK’s enduring role in continental defence, despite its departure from the EU.
Upcoming Strategic Milestones
The NATO defence ministers’ meeting in May will serve as a precursor to the alliance’s critical summit in June, where the focus will be on defence spending, troop deployments, and Ukraine’s military aid. The EU’s discussions at Château de Limont are set to inform NATO’s broader strategic goals, with alignment between the EU and NATO being a priority for both Mark Rutte and António Costa.
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