Orban’s Gamble: Win or Loss? 3 Key Takeaways from the Hungarian Elections

Recent European and local Hungarian elections have generated headlines suggesting a potential shift in power for Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

While this narrative holds some truth, it is crucial to dissect the results to fully grasp the complexities at play and avoid falling into the trap of oversimplified conclusions.

1. A Quantitative Win, a Qualitative Loss

Orban and his party, Fidesz, have experienced a paradoxical outcome. Quantitatively, they secured the most votes in both European and local elections. However, qualitatively, these victories signal a reputational decline and indicate a potential shift in Hungary’s political landscape.

The elections revealed the existence of a credible alternative to Orban and Fidesz, reminiscent of the parliamentary elections in 2002 and 2006. During those years, Fidesz won the popular vote but ended up in opposition. Similarly, in the 2019 local elections, despite a sweeping national victory, Fidesz lost key mayoral seats in 12 major cities, including Budapest.

This time, although Fidesz obtained 44% of the vote – its lowest percentage ever in European Parliament elections – it still received a record 2,015,000 votes, thanks to an unprecedented turnout of over 59%. This turnout represents 4.5 million voters out of 7.8 million registered. For context, in 2019, the turnout was only 43%, with Fidesz receiving 1,824,220 votes, constituting 52.56%. Thus, despite a higher vote count, Fidesz’s percentage share dropped significantly.

2. The Rise of TISZA and a New Political Dynamic

The emergence of the TISZA party, led by Péter Magyar, has dramatically altered Hungary’s political landscape. Garnering nearly 30% of the vote – over 1.3 million voters – TISZA’s rapid rise from obscurity since February is unprecedented in Hungarian politics post-2010.

Péter Magyar

Magyar’s ascent is comparable to the political breakthrough of Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine. TISZA’s platform, though not clearly defined beyond protest sentiments and a call for systemic change, has captivated a significant portion of the electorate. Interestingly, Magyar, a right-leaning conservative perceived as part of the Fidesz system, has drawn support primarily from liberal voters, notably those of the Momentum party, leading to its near obliteration.

The phenomenon reflects a broader youth-driven, pro-Western protest movement, transcending traditional ideological boundaries. This sentiment was echoed in several cities, with Fidesz suffering unexpected defeats in places like Győr, Budapest, and Hódmezővásárhely.

3. Implications for Orban and the Future of Hungarian Politics

The protest potential within Hungarian society poses the greatest threat to Orban. Hungary, often described as a “captured state,” remains an electoral democracy where high voter turnout can catalyse the dismantling of the regime.

Despite Fidesz’s extensive efforts in media and propaganda to mobilise their base and demobilise the opposition, they failed to achieve this goal in the recent elections.

Orban is now grappling with a lack of qualified personnel, an ageing team, and an “ideal storm” of challenges that have undermined his 2024 plans. Post-election, key figures like Minister of Culture and Innovation János Csák have resigned, signalling internal turmoil and dissatisfaction within Fidesz.

The parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026 have effectively begun, turning Hungary’s domestic politics into a rapidly evolving and contentious arena.

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