Germany is set to hold early parliamentary elections on 23rd February 2025, following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government and a decisive no-confidence vote in the Bundestag on 16th December 2024. This rare political upheaval highlights a significant moment of instability for Europe’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Parliamentary Breakdown: The Vote and Its Aftermath
Chancellor Scholz’s government secured the support of only 207 lawmakers in the Bundestag, far below the required 367 votes to maintain his leadership. A total of 394 parliamentarians voted against him, while 116 abstained. With 733 members in the Bundestag, this result demonstrates the scale of dissent Scholz faces, even within the fragmented political environment.
Under Germany’s constitution, the Bundestag cannot dissolve itself. Scholz is now required to formally request that President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolve parliament and call new elections. Steinmeier, who has 21 days to make his decision, has already signalled his agreement to the proposed election date of 23 February 2025.
The Collapse of the Traffic Light Coalition
Scholz’s political troubles began last month when the Free Democratic Party (FDP) withdrew from the three-way “traffic light coalition,” which also included Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens. The coalition fractured after Scholz dismissed his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP, amid disagreements over how to revive Germany’s stagnating economy.
The coalition’s collapse followed months of disputes over fiscal policy, energy reform, and responses to growing economic challenges, leaving Scholz at the helm of a minority government. Leaders across Germany’s political spectrum agreed that early elections were the only way to resolve the impasse, seven months ahead of the originally scheduled vote.
Key Players in the Election Campaign
With campaigning already underway, opinion polls show Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leading the race, projected to secure over 30% of the vote. This marks a resurgence for the CDU, which has been in opposition since 2021. Merz has sharply criticised Scholz’s handling of the economy, accusing him of burdening future generations with unsustainable debt.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), polling at 18%, remains a contentious force in German politics. Despite its rising popularity, the AfD is unlikely to form a government as mainstream parties continue to rule out coalition talks with it.
Scholz’s SPD, trailing at 17%, faces significant challenges in convincing voters to grant him a second term. Scholz has defended his leadership by promoting policies to modernise debt rules, increase the minimum wage, and lower the value-added tax on food. He has also positioned Germany as Ukraine’s largest European military supplier but reiterated his refusal to provide long-range Taurus missiles or escalate direct involvement in the war with Russia.
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens has also declared his candidacy for chancellor, though his party is polling at just 13%, reflecting declining support after internal disagreements within the coalition.
Economic and Political Challenges Dominate Campaigns
Germany’s economic stagnation looms large over the election. Once regarded as Europe’s economic powerhouse, the country faces slowing growth, high energy costs, and an increasingly competitive global market. While Scholz emphasises long-term investments and social cohesion, Merz has accused his government of mishandling the crisis, promising a return to fiscal conservatism and competitiveness.
Energy policy remains another divisive issue. Scholz’s government has been criticised for failing to balance ambitious climate goals with economic realities. The debate over renewable energy, coal reliance, and nuclear power is likely to intensify as voters demand pragmatic solutions.
Immigration is also set to feature prominently, with the AfD capitalising on anti-immigration sentiment. Other parties, however, are cautious about embracing harsher policies that could polarise public opinion further.
The Stakes for Europe and Beyond
Germany’s political turmoil comes at a crucial time for the European Union, which relies heavily on its largest member state for stability and leadership. The prospect of a CDU-led government under Merz may signal a return to more conservative fiscal policies, potentially reshaping EU budgetary priorities.
The rise of the AfD also has broader implications for Europe, as its growing influence mirrors the momentum of far-right parties across the continent. Meanwhile, Germany’s approach to the Ukraine conflict, economic recovery, and climate leadership will remain central to its role within the EU and NATO.
A Rare Moment in German Politics
Confidence votes are uncommon in postwar Germany, a country known for its political stability. This marks only the sixth such vote in its history, the last occurring in 2005 when then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder called for early elections, narrowly losing to Angela Merkel.
Scholz now enters the caretaker phase of his chancellorship, overseeing a government that will likely remain in limbo until after the February elections. The snap vote will not only decide Germany’s next government but also set the course for addressing the pressing economic and political challenges facing the nation.
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Germany’s ‘Traffic Light’ Coalition Collapses Amid Economic Stagnation and Political Turmoil
