In a worrying political upset, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a neo-Marxist candidate, has won Sri Lanka’s presidential election, defying expectations and marking a decisive break from the country’s entrenched political elite.
Dissanayake’s success in the presidency not only breaks the stronghold of the traditional ruling families but also raises fresh questions about the country’s ongoing economic recovery, especially its $3bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout deal, which has been pivotal in managing the country’s economic crisis.
Dissanayake’s journey to the presidency was nothing short of remarkable. A 55-year-old political outsider from the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, he defeated incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, son of a former president. Dissanayake’s victory came after a gruelling five-week campaign in which he capitalised on public anger towards the established political dynasties that have dominated Sri Lanka’s leadership for decades.
The election commission declared Dissanayake as the duly elected president on Sunday evening, marking the culmination of a tightly contested race. He garnered 5.7 million votes, defeating Premadasa, who received 4.5 million votes. Turnout was high, with 79 per cent of the electorate participating, though slightly down from 83 per cent in the previous election in 2019.
Dissanayake’s message of change resonated with many Sri Lankans, particularly those disillusioned by the country’s ongoing economic hardships. After two years of economic collapse, including a sovereign debt default, widespread fuel shortages, and power cuts, the electorate was eager for a leader who could break with the status quo.
“This achievement is not the result of any single person’s work, but the collective effort of hundreds of thousands of you,” Dissanayake wrote in a social media statement, calling for a “fresh start” for the country.
Breaking the Hold of Dynastic Politics
Harini Amarasuriya, a prominent politician from Dissanayake’s NPP coalition, hailed the victory as a rejection of the traditional political elite. The win, she said, was more than just a transfer of power; it was a “real shift in power dynamics” in Sri Lanka, where political dynasties such as the Rajapaksa family have long held sway.
In the previous administration, Gotabaya Rajapaksa had been forced to flee the country following mass protests over his handling of the country’s economic crisis. His departure paved the way for Wickremesinghe, who took over in 2022 amid a desperate effort to stabilise Sri Lanka’s economy.
While Wickremesinghe managed to secure an IMF bailout and initiate debt restructuring, many voters were still dissatisfied with the continued influence of political elites and their perceived role in Sri Lanka’s downfall.
“This is a vote against the corruption and scandal that has plagued public life for years,” said Amarasuriya, emphasising that the NPP’s campaign was centred on anti-corruption and accountability.
Economic Recovery and the IMF Deal
Despite his neo-Marxist roots, Dissanayake has promised to continue working with the IMF on the $3bn bailout agreement, which is crucial to Sri Lanka’s recovery. However, he has indicated that he plans to renegotiate some aspects of the deal to offer more relief to the country’s population, about a quarter of whom live in poverty following the crisis.
Dissanayake and his NPP coalition have called for a renegotiation to make the IMF deal more favourable for the poor, keeping interest payments at manageable levels, and ensuring that the austerity measures imposed do not disproportionately harm those already struggling. His government has also proposed conducting a debt audit to scrutinise foreign loans, with potential legal action against those found to have misappropriated funds.
This seemingly impossible balancing act—between adhering to the IMF-backed recovery plan and meeting the urgent needs of Sri Lanka’s struggling population—will be one of the greatest challenges Dissanayake faces during his presidency.
While his anti-establishment rhetoric has earned him widespread support, some analysts are cautious about how a party with Marxist-Leninist roots will manage economic policy in a globalised, debt-laden environment.
A Historic Realignment
Dissanayake’s victory represents a significant political realignment in Sri Lanka. His People’s Liberation Front (JVP), which forms the backbone of the NPP coalition, was originally a Marxist-Leninist party. Over the years, it has evolved, but the party still uses the hammer and sickle as its symbol and maintains its revolutionary rhetoric, drawing inspiration from figures like Vladimir Lenin and Che Guevara. Dissanayake’s own image, featuring him in a black beret reminiscent of Guevara, has further reinforced this revolutionary symbolism.
Although the JVP briefly participated in a coalition government from 2004 to 2005, it has never held power independently. With only three MPs in a parliament dominated by legacy parties, the NPP’s electoral success reflects deep public dissatisfaction with the status quo. Commentators have noted that much of the Rajapaksa family’s former support base shifted to Dissanayake, playing a crucial role in his victory.
As Dissanayake prepares to take office, his administration is expected to push for the dissolution of parliament and a fresh general election, which could solidify the NPP’s mandate.
Image source: Facebook
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