The Sahel has long been a region of fragile states, ethnic tensions, and recurring humanitarian crises. Today, it stands as one of the most pressing security concerns for Europe.
An article in DEFENCE MATTERS.EU this morning warns that from Mali to Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad, instability is no longer a distant worry but a proximate threat, encompassing terrorism, mass displacement, and economic disruption. For European capitals, the Sahel represents a multidimensional challenge, where the lines between internal African conflicts and European security are increasingly blurred.
A Region Under Siege
Since 2012, Mali has been at the epicentre of jihadist insurgency, initially concentrated in the north but spreading southwards with alarming speed. Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) exploit governance vacuums, ethnic rivalries, and porous borders to entrench their presence. Niger and Burkina Faso have witnessed similar developments.
Villages are abandoned, local officials threatened or assassinated, and civilians trapped between insurgents and faltering state forces. Chad, long seen as a stabilising force in the region, revealed its fragility with the death of President Idriss Déby in 2021, exposing vulnerabilities to both internal unrest and cross-border militant activity.
The security threats emerging from the Sahel have direct implications for Europe. Jihadist groups based in the region have demonstrated the capacity to plan and inspire attacks far beyond Africa’s borders. Paris, Brussels, and London have already seen violent incidents linked to networks operating in the Sahel.
European states, particularly France, have deployed significant military resources – from Operation Barkhane to EU training missions – yet the threat has only evolved, not diminished. Concerns are also being raised in the U.S.
Tactics have grown more sophisticated: remote coordination, drone reconnaissance, and targeted assassinations have allowed insurgents to maintain influence even in contested regions. Europe must contend with the reality that the Sahel is becoming a long-term incubator of jihadist networks with global reach.
The Migration Dimension
The human cost of instability is profound. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, over 8 million people in the Sahel are internally displaced or seeking refuge abroad. Violence, coupled with economic collapse and environmental degradation, has driven this mass exodus.
Villages are abandoned as communities flee jihadist expansion and intercommunal violence. Many move first to neighbouring Sahelian countries, but these states are ill-equipped to cope with the influx, leading to secondary displacement northwards, ultimately reaching Libya and other North African transit points en route to Europe.
Migration flows from the Sahel have surged to unprecedented levels. The International Organization for Migration reported sharp increases in departures from Mali and Burkina Faso, with many migrants risking the perilous journey across the Sahara and the Mediterranean.
For European governments, this is not a hypothetical scenario but an immediate challenge. Italy, Spain, and France, as primary entry points, face mounting pressure on their reception systems, while domestic political debates over migration are intensifying. Populist parties leverage the crisis, framing it as both a security and cultural threat, adding political complexity to what is already a humanitarian emergency.
Irregular migration routes also present direct security concerns. Criminal networks and jihadist operatives exploit these flows, embedding themselves among migrants and crossing borders undetected. European intelligence and law enforcement face the delicate task of distinguishing genuine refugees from potential threats while upholding international obligations to protect vulnerable populations. Missteps could lead to both security incidents and severe reputational damage, intensifying domestic political tensions.
The Compounding Effect of Coups and Military Rule
The Sahel’s instability is exacerbated by political volatility. Since 2020, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all experienced coups, signaling a disturbing trend in which democratic institutions are weakened and military rule becomes the default. These regimes struggle to establish legitimacy and often rely on foreign mercenaries or opaque security arrangements, raising concerns in European capitals.
In Mali, the junta’s engagement with the Wagner Group has alarmed France and the EU, suggesting a gradual shift in regional allegiances away from Western influence. Military rule, while sometimes temporarily stabilising, has so far failed to address the root causes of insurgency, often intensifying ethnic tensions and fuelling further displacement.
Ethnic conflict compounds the region’s security challenges. Fulani herders and Mossi farmers in Burkina Faso, for example, have been drawn into cycles of violence often exploited by jihadist factions. In Niger, proliferation of local militias creates fragmented zones of control, each governed by its own rules. This environment makes traditional counterterrorism strategies less effective and increases the risk that instability will metastasize beyond the Sahel. For Europe, fragmented governance across the region translates into a persistent, unpredictable security threat with potential consequences on the continent itself.
Humanitarian Pressures and Climate Stress
The humanitarian dimension of the Sahel crisis cannot be understated. Millions face acute food insecurity, with the World Food Programme warning of one of the most severe hunger crises in decades. Children, in particular, are at risk of malnutrition, while healthcare systems collapse under the strain of conflict and displacement. For Europe, this translates into an obligation to provide humanitarian aid and to plan for long-term consequences, including the integration of migrants and refugees.
Climate change exacerbates these pressures. The Sahel is highly vulnerable to drought, desertification, and erratic rainfall. Pastoral and farming communities, whose livelihoods are already precarious, are increasingly forced to move in search of water, fertile land, and viable economic opportunities. Even if insurgent threats were neutralised, these structural environmental pressures would continue to drive migration, suggesting that European policy cannot rely solely on military or security solutions but must also consider climate-adaptation strategies and development assistance.
Europe’s Response: Challenges and Limitations
European responses have been varied, yet the effectiveness is often limited. France, historically the principal military actor in the Sahel, has reduced troop deployments while emphasising the need for local forces to assume responsibility. The EU has supported regional militaries through training missions and development aid, attempting to address both security and root causes of displacement. Yet the pace of insurgent growth, coupled with fragile governance and complex ethnic dynamics, often outstrips these efforts.
Political cohesion in Europe also complicates the response. Disagreement over funding, burden-sharing, and migration quotas has left frontline states like Italy and Spain to cope with the brunt of arrivals. Public opinion across the EU is divided: citizens support humanitarian aid but are less inclined to accept large-scale reception of irregular migrants. Politicians across the spectrum use the issue to bolster electoral support, framing migration in terms of security or social strain rather than broader humanitarian or strategic obligations.
Economic and Strategic Stakes
The Sahel is resource-rich, with minerals and energy resources critical to global supply chains. Uranium in Niger, gold in Burkina Faso, and other resources are threatened by instability, undermining extraction and investment. For Europe, this has both economic and strategic implications: disrupted supply chains affect industrial sectors, while prolonged instability creates opportunities for external powers such as Russia and China to expand influence. The Wagner Group’s presence in Mali exemplifies this risk, representing a potential geopolitical realignment that could erode European influence in the region.
Addressing these challenges requires more than military intervention. Development, governance support, and regional cooperation are critical. The G5 Sahel – comprising Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger – offers a framework for collective action, yet its effectiveness has been hampered by resource constraints, internal divisions, and inconsistent political will. European policy must therefore balance immediate security needs with longer-term investments in state-building, economic development, and conflict resolution.
The Human Dimension: Migration and Integration
The migration crisis emanating from the Sahel presents a profound human and political challenge for Europe. Migrants face perilous journeys across deserts and seas, often subject to exploitation and abuse. Libya, as a transit hub, is infamous for its detention centres and human trafficking networks. Europe’s moral and strategic obligations are intertwined: border security must be complemented by humanitarian protection and integration policies. Short-term measures alone – border patrols, deportations, or external military interventions – are insufficient to address the systemic causes of migration.
Integration remains a long-term challenge, particularly in regions already experiencing economic stagnation or social tension. Yet the migration issue is also an opportunity: with careful planning, Europe can harness the skills and resilience of migrants, turning a potential crisis into a long-term societal benefit. Failure to plan, however, risks both humanitarian disaster and the growth of populist movements exploiting public anxieties over security, culture, and employment.
A Long-Term Strategic Imperative
The Sahel crisis is not a transient problem. Terrorism, political instability, ethnic conflict, climate stress, and migration pressures are structural realities that will shape the region for years to come. Europe’s response must therefore be multidimensional and sustained, integrating military, diplomatic, humanitarian, and developmental strategies. Engagement cannot be reactive or fragmented; it must be coherent, coordinated, and long-term.
European policymakers face a stark choice: disengage and risk the Sahel becoming a permanent sanctuary for jihadists and a chronic source of migration, or commit resources and political will to stabilise a region whose instability increasingly touches European shores. The latter approach demands coordination across EU institutions, bilateral diplomacy with Sahelian states, and investment in both security and development, recognising that the two are inseparable.
The Sahel as a Strategic Priority for Europe
The Sahel represents a convergence of threats that cannot be ignored. From jihadist networks to mass displacement, from humanitarian crises to economic disruption, the region’s instability is already reshaping European security, politics, and policy. Military interventions alone are insufficient; development aid and climate adaptation must be integrated into a comprehensive strategy. Migration pressures will persist, and Europe’s ability to manage them will depend on both immediate measures and long-term investments in governance and regional resilience.
In short, the Sahel is no longer a distant concern. It is a proximate, multidimensional crisis whose consequences are felt across the Mediterranean. Europe’s security, political stability, and humanitarian responsibilities are all implicated. Ignoring the region is no longer an option. What is required is strategic clarity, unity of purpose, and a recognition that the Sahel’s future is inseparable from Europe’s own.
The stakes are high: failure to act decisively risks a persistent, escalating threat from terrorism and uncontrolled migration, while effective engagement could transform a zone of chronic instability into a region of managed risk and potential opportunity. For Europe, the Sahel is not merely a foreign concern; it is a test of the continent’s capacity to respond to instability on its periphery, a challenge that will define policy and security priorities for decades to come.
