German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to initiate a parliamentary vote of confidence in his government, a move that will lead to early federal elections if, as expected, the vote results in a loss of confidence.
The vote, scheduled for 16 December, follows the breakdown of his coalition government and is a significant moment in Germany’s political landscape. If the Bundestag confirms a lack of confidence, Scholz will formally request President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve parliament, paving the way for elections on 23 February 2025.
Procedure for Early Elections
Scholz’s decision to seek a vote of confidence adheres to Germany’s constitutional requirements for dissolving the Bundestag. According to German law, a chancellor cannot unilaterally call for early elections. Instead, a formal no-confidence vote in the Bundestag is necessary, followed by presidential approval for parliamentary dissolution.
A government spokesperson confirmed that Scholz will submit a written request for the vote this week. Once the Bundestag holds the vote on 16 December, it is almost certain that Scholz’s government will fail to secure a majority. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and their coalition partners, the Greens, no longer hold enough seats to maintain control following the departure of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the coalition.
After the expected loss of the confidence vote, Scholz will turn to President Steinmeier to request the dissolution of the Bundestag. This will officially trigger the campaign for early elections, now tentatively scheduled for 23 February 2025.
Political Context and Coalition Breakdown
The collapse of the coalition government marks the end of Scholz’s fragile “traffic light” alliance between the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP. The alliance has faced increasing tensions over policy disagreements, particularly on fiscal policy, climate legislation, and economic reforms.
The FDP, traditionally a pro-business party, repeatedly clashed with the Greens over the pace and scope of climate regulations, as well as with the SPD on public spending policies. The FDP’s withdrawal left Scholz’s coalition without the majority needed to govern effectively, forcing the chancellor to seek a no-confidence vote to facilitate early elections.
Public Opinion and Electoral Projections
Recent opinion polls indicate significant changes in Germany’s political dynamics, with Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerging as the frontrunner. The CDU is projected to win over 30% of the vote, a clear lead over other parties.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to secure 18%, reflecting a continued surge in support, particularly in eastern Germany. This development highlights the AfD’s growing influence despite being excluded by mainstream parties.
The SPD under Scholz has seen its popularity decline, with current polling suggesting it will gain only 17% of the vote. The Greens are expected to follow with 13%, reflecting their struggles in balancing coalition governance with their climate-focused agenda.
The FDP faces a critical challenge, with polls suggesting it may fail to reach the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag. Similarly, the left-wing alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht, which recently split from Die Linke, is also unlikely to secure parliamentary seats.
Friedrich Merz and Germany’s Foreign Policy
As the CDU appears poised to lead the next government, Friedrich Merz is emerging as the most likely candidate for chancellor. Merz has sought to position himself as a strong leader on economic and security matters, distinguishing his approach from Scholz’s cautious style.
On 9 December, Merz visited Kyiv, where he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Their discussions included Germany’s military support for Ukraine, with Zelensky expressing hope for approval of Taurus long-range missiles—a decision Scholz’s government delayed despite pressure from NATO allies. Merz’s visit signals his intent to take a more proactive stance on defence and foreign policy should he assume the chancellorship.
Challenges for the Next Coalition
While the CDU is expected to lead in February’s elections, forming a governing coalition will present challenges. The AfD’s rise complicates the political landscape, as mainstream parties continue to reject any collaboration with the far-right.
If the FDP fails to re-enter parliament, the CDU may need to negotiate with the Greens or the SPD to form a coalition. Such arrangements would require compromises on key issues, including energy policy, taxation, and Germany’s approach to climate change.
For the SPD and Greens, the election represents an opportunity to rebuild voter trust after a period of coalition infighting. However, their diminished polling numbers suggest they may struggle to regain their previous influence in the Bundestag.
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