Indian refiners plan to continue buying Russian crude through the end of 2025, with purchases for November and December expected to remain active, according to people familiar with buying plans cited by Bloomberg.
While volumes may be lower than recent peaks, market participants anticipate steady intake supported by domestic fuel demand and available supplies of Russia’s Urals grade.
The outlook follows a recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Public accounts of the exchange indicate Mr Trump thanked Mr Modi for his support towards ending the war in Ukraine, a message amplified across Indian and international media and official channels. Although there is no formal US readout tying the call to energy trade, coverage of the conversation has been widely reported by Bloomberg and Indian outlets.
Officials in New Delhi are in regular contact with state-owned and private refiners. However, according to Bloomberg’s reporting, there have been no formal directives to reduce or increase Russian crude purchases at this stage. That position could shift as US–India trade discussions progress, but for now refiners appear to be making commercial decisions based on economics and logistics.
Reliance Industries is central to the near-term trajectory. The company operates the Jamnagar refining complex and, according to multiple reports, has a long-term supply arrangement with Russia’s Rosneft announced in December 2024. Reuters described the agreement as a 10-year deal with significant volumes, while independent industry analysis suggested deliveries could reach several hundred thousand barrels per day. The structure of this contract means any adjustment by Reliance would disproportionately influence aggregate Indian intake of Russian crude.
India’s broader buying posture sits within the G7/Oil Price Cap Coalition framework introduced in late 2022. Under EU rules, maritime transport and related services by EU operators are permissible for Russian crude and products only if sold at or below the applicable cap; US guidance sets similar conditions for Coalition service providers. The design is intended to keep oil flowing to global markets while limiting Russia’s revenues, effectively allowing buyers to negotiate discounts on Russian barrels. These parameters continue to shape shipping, insurance and financing choices for Indian cargoes.
Price dynamics have reinforced the calculus. Bloomberg has reported that Russian crude has recently become cheaper for Indian buyers even as Washington steps up criticism of India’s trade with Moscow. An ample supply of Urals and widening differentials versus Middle Eastern grades have supported refinery margins, particularly as India’s post-monsoon fuel consumption rises.
There are, nonetheless, operational and policy variables. Compliance documentation under the price-cap regime, the choice between Western-insured vessels and alternative fleets, and port-state controls all influence cargo execution. Adjustments to the cap methodology—such as efforts to keep Russian prices a set margin below global benchmarks—also affect realised discounts and purchasing behaviour.
Refiners’ strategies are not uniform. State-run and private players balance crude slates across Russian, Middle Eastern and other origins based on quality, economics and payments logistics. Recent reporting on Nayara Energy—a refiner with Russian shareholding—illustrates how sanctions and payments frictions can redirect flows toward domestic sales or alternative arrangements. Such firm-level responses underline how Indian procurement is shaped as much by commercial constraints as by headline diplomacy.
The diplomatic backdrop remains fluid. Bloomberg has noted that New Delhi has pushed back against calls to end Russian imports absent a comprehensive global ban, casting the issue as a matter of strategic autonomy. At the same time, US–India trade contacts have resumed, and Reuters has reported signals of potential tariff easing following a thaw in tone—developments that could, over time, influence energy trade conversations even if no immediate policy changes are evident.
In the near term, the balance of evidence suggests continuity. Bloomberg’s sources indicate that Indian buyers intend to keep Russian oil in their feedstock mix into November and December, with the scale of Reliance’s offtake a key swing factor. The price-cap framework remains the operative constraint for cargoes reliant on Western services, while discounts and domestic demand growth continue to support commercial purchases. Unless trade talks yield explicit guidance or the economics shift materially, Indian refiners appear set to maintain Russian barrels in their crude diet into year-end.
