Spain’s People’s Party won the regional election in Andalusia but lost its absolute majority, giving Vox renewed leverage and turning the country’s most populous region into a test of right-wing coalition politics before the next national election.
Spain’s conservative People’s Party has won the regional election in Andalusia, but its failure to retain an absolute majority has left it dependent on Vox to remain in power, exposing the coalition arithmetic likely to shape national politics before the next general election.
The People’s Party secured 53 seats in the 109-seat regional parliament, two short of the 55 required for a majority. Vox won 15 seats, placing it in a position to support, abstain, or demand formal participation in a new administration led by Juan Manuel Moreno, the incumbent regional president.
The result is not a change of government in Andalusia. It is a change in leverage. Moreno had governed with an absolute majority after the 2022 election and had sought another mandate without reliance on Vox. Instead, the result gives the smaller party an opportunity to influence the formation of the next government in Spain’s most populous region.
Andalusia has long carried political weight beyond its regional institutions. It is Spain’s most populous autonomous community and was historically a stronghold of the Socialist Workers’ Party. The Socialists, led in the region by María Jesús Montero, fell to 28 seats, their worst performance in Andalusia in decades. The outcome is a setback for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s party at a time when national politics is already marked by corruption allegations, parliamentary weakness and pressure from the right.
The election also gives the People’s Party a more complicated victory. It remains the dominant force in Andalusia, but it cannot govern alone unless Vox allows it to do so. Moreno may try to form a minority government and seek support from Vox on an investiture vote and future legislation. Vox may instead press for a coalition agreement or policy commitments on migration, public spending, cultural issues and regional administration.
The Financial Times described Vox as the effective kingmaker after the vote. That assessment reflects a wider pattern in Spanish politics: the People’s Party remains the main conservative vehicle, but in several regions it has needed Vox to assemble or sustain majorities. The same equation could reappear at national level if the right wins more seats than the left in the next general election without securing a parliamentary majority.
That possibility is the real national significance of the Andalusian result. The election was not only about regional management, healthcare, unemployment, drug trafficking and local public services. It was also a test of whether the People’s Party can expand enough to govern independently, or whether its path to power still depends on Vox.
For Sánchez, the result is damaging but not decisive. Regional elections do not automatically translate into national outcomes, and Andalusia has its own political dynamics. However, the Socialists’ weak result in a region where they once dominated will reinforce questions over whether Sánchez can recover ground before the national contest expected next year.
For the People’s Party, the risk is different. Moreno’s regional brand has been built partly on moderation and administrative competence. Dependence on Vox could make that positioning harder to sustain, especially if negotiations produce visible concessions. The PP leadership will need to balance the practical need for votes against the political cost of appearing unable to govern without a party that remains divisive for many Spanish voters.
The issue matters for the European Union because Spain is not a marginal member state. It is one of the bloc’s largest economies and a major participant in debates on migration, budget policy, industrial competitiveness, energy, Latin America and the Mediterranean. A future national government dependent on Vox would be watched closely in Brussels, particularly on migration policy, climate measures, institutional questions and Spain’s position in EU negotiations.
The Andalusian result also reflects a broader European pattern in which mainstream centre-right parties face pressure from parties further to the right. In some countries, they have tried to exclude them from government. In others, they have entered coalitions or relied on parliamentary support. Spain has not resolved that question. The latest vote suggests it may become more difficult to avoid.
Moreno’s party can still present the result as a win. It finished first by a clear margin and remains the natural governing force in the region. But the loss of its absolute majority changes the political terms. Vox does not need to overtake the PP to shape policy. It only needs enough seats to make the PP dependent.
That is what Andalusia has now delivered: not a political earthquake, but a sharper version of Spain’s unresolved national question. If the right is to govern, can the People’s Party do it alone, or will Vox hold the balance of power?
