Following the first high-level meeting in years between Russian and American officials in Riyadh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a speech before the Russian State Duma, outlining Moscow’s foreign policy priorities.
Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s long-standing position that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership was a key factor in the conflict. He praised US President Donald Trump for stating that NATO expansion was the reason behind Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, Lavrov’s comments align with Moscow’s broader narrative, which portrays NATO enlargement as a direct threat to Russia’s security, rather than acknowledging its invasion as a preemptive and aggressive action.
The Russian foreign minister also emphasised Russia’s deepening ties with China, presenting this alliance as stronger than any previous partnerships. Moscow, he claimed, sees its growing relationship with Beijing as a counterweight to Western influence.
Lavrov framed Russia’s strategic objective as not just resisting NATO but actively seeking to dismantle the Euro-Atlantic security framework. He suggested that Europe would eventually be forced to accept a new security order, dictated by Russian and Chinese influence, especially if the US were to scale down its military presence in the region.
Russia’s Vision for a New Global Order
Lavrov’s remarks made it clear that Moscow aims to exploit its membership in BRICS to counter Western influence over Ukraine. The expansion of BRICS and the reluctance of its member states to sever ties with Russia have provided Moscow with a critical economic lifeline. Lavrov highlighted this as a sign that Russia retains significant international support outside the West. He argued that the United States had failed to isolate Russia and that Washington’s attempts to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing had been unsuccessful.
According to Lavrov, Russia’s negotiations with the US are not aimed at finding a resolution to the Ukraine war but rather at breaking Russia’s isolation in the West. The Kremlin appears to be using diplomatic engagements to gain strategic breathing room while maintaining its military campaign. Lavrov’s address suggested that Moscow hopes the divisions between US and European approaches to Ukraine will eventually weaken Western resolve, potentially leading to fractures within NATO.
One of the key themes in Lavrov’s speech was the expectation that NATO would eventually collapse, leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian influence. Moscow appears to be betting on a shift in Western policy—particularly under a possible second Trump presidency—that could see the US reduce its security commitments to Europe. Lavrov implied that Russia sees an opportunity to reshape the European security landscape, with Moscow and Beijing emerging as the dominant powers.
Moscow’s Plans for Post-War Ukraine and European Security
Russia’s long-term vision for Ukraine appears to be modelled on Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russian troops to be stationed on his country’s territory, effectively placing Belarus under Moscow’s political and economic control. Lavrov’s remarks hinted that Russia had intended a similar outcome for Ukraine following its invasion in 2022. However, Kyiv’s continued resistance and Western military support have prevented such a scenario.
Lavrov also suggested that Moscow’s approach to European security would involve coercing countries into new security arrangements under Russian and Chinese leadership. He claimed that fear of Russian military power, combined with a potential US military withdrawal from Europe, would push European nations to seek accommodation with Moscow. This narrative aligns with Russia’s broader strategic goal of weakening transatlantic ties and replacing NATO’s security guarantees with its own influence.
Lavrov’s comments reflect Moscow’s belief that European political leaders seeking electoral success may be more inclined to negotiate with Russia rather than maintain a hard-line stance. He implied that Russia would continue to exploit divisions within Western democracies, particularly among politicians who are sympathetic to Trump’s foreign policy views.
Implications for the United States and the West
Lavrov’s speech highlights Moscow’s confidence in its ability to navigate the geopolitical landscape despite Western sanctions and military setbacks in Ukraine. Russia is positioning itself as a leader of a new global order that challenges Western dominance. The Kremlin’s bet on long-term fractures within the West—whether due to internal political shifts or disagreements over Ukraine—forms the basis of its diplomatic and military strategy.
For the United States, Lavrov’s remarks present a clear challenge. Trump’s presidency introduces significant uncertainties about the future of US policy towards NATO and Europe. Moscow appears to be preparing for a scenario in which American influence in Europe diminishes, allowing Russia to assert greater control over its neighbouring regions.
As Lavrov made clear, Russia’s diplomatic efforts with the US are not aimed at ending the war in Ukraine but rather at reshaping the global security landscape in Moscow’s favour. The West will need to remain vigilant against Russia’s broader objectives, particularly as it seeks to leverage global alliances and internal divisions within Western democracies to achieve its strategic goals.
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