On 6th March 2025, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2021–2024), addressed a security conference at Chatham House in London.
In a speech that underscored the geopolitical shifts reshaping the world, Zaluzhnyi argued that the existing global order has collapsed and that a new security architecture in Europe cannot be built without Ukraine.
The End of the Old World Order
Zaluzhnyi outlined the historical context of the global order, tracing it back to the post-World War II settlements at the Yalta and Potsdam conferences, which laid the foundations for the Cold War era. That order, he noted, persisted even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, with the United States maintaining stability through military and economic dominance.
However, he identified 10 February 2007 as a turning point—the day Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his Munich Security Conference speech, challenging the unipolar global system dominated by the West. “Nobody feels safe, nobody can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” Putin declared at the time. Zaluzhnyi contended that the West failed to grasp the significance of Putin’s warning, leaving itself unprepared for the subsequent conflicts.
Russia’s wars in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022) followed a clear trajectory. “Eighteen years ago, Putin warned that the unipolar model serving only the interests of the U.S. and a select group of states was unsustainable,” Zaluzhnyi noted. “Now, we see Asia, Africa, and Latin America increasingly influencing the global agenda.” Meanwhile, Ukraine has emerged not only as a frontline state resisting Russian aggression but also as a key actor in shaping the new international order.
Ukraine’s Struggle and the Global Consequences
Zaluzhnyi emphasised that Ukraine’s resistance has forced Russia to reveal its strategic alignment with other authoritarian states, forming what he referred to as an “Axis of Evil.” While he did not specify the members of this axis, he suggested that their growing cooperation signals a deliberate challenge to the Western-led world order.
He also highlighted the broader global implications of the war. The conflict has strained the economic and military resources of Ukraine’s allies, including the United States, the European Union, and even China. “The war in Ukraine has nearly exhausted the economic and industrial ‘reserves of resilience’ of most nations involved,” he said, adding that resource shortages are making it increasingly difficult for countries to sustain high-intensity warfare.
The economic fallout has been severe. The war has disrupted supply chains, triggered inflation, and increased pressure on global energy markets. Migration flows, sanctions, and military spending have further burdened economies worldwide. At the same time, the conflict has accelerated technological advancements, particularly in military strategy and warfare. “Classic large-scale operations with immense resource expenditures are not just outdated—they have become suicidal,” Zaluzhnyi observed.
NATO’s Uncertain Future and the U.S. Position
One of the more striking points in Zaluzhnyi’s speech was his assertion that the United States is retreating from its traditional security role in Europe. He pointed to recent negotiations between Washington and Moscow, which he claimed demonstrate a shift in U.S. priorities. “The White House has questioned the unity of the Western world,” he said. “It is actively seeking to transfer the burden of European security onto the continent itself, without American involvement.”
This shift, he warned, could lead to NATO’s dissolution. He cited reports that the U.S. Cyber Command has ceased planning operations against Russia as further evidence of Washington’s changing stance. The implication, he suggested, is that the United States might be willing to accept a new European security framework that does not necessarily rely on NATO as it currently exists.
“Make no mistake,” he added, “Russia understands this, and Europe must as well. If the U.S. disengages, Europe will face a direct security threat.”
The Role of Ukraine in Europe’s Future
Zaluzhnyi stressed that Ukraine’s ongoing fight has demonstrated its indispensability in European security. “Ukraine is no longer just a participant in international affairs—it is a key actor,” he asserted. “Even the strongest nations now recognise that Ukraine cannot be ignored.”
He argued that Ukraine is effectively defending not just its own territory but also NATO’s eastern flank. “Whether people like it or not, Ukraine is de facto protecting Europe’s eastern border,” he said. Given NATO’s current uncertainties, Ukraine’s role in the continent’s security architecture is growing. However, without its own nuclear deterrent, Ukraine is paying the price for its security in blood.
For Ukraine to fully integrate into the new European security framework, Zaluzhnyi outlined several necessary steps:
- Securing European Support for the War Effort: “Without a clearly defined front line, further action is impossible. Stronger European support is essential.”
- Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Post-War Security: “Ukraine must receive real, enforceable security guarantees.”
- Ensuring Just Reconstruction: “Ukraine’s reconstruction must be funded, at least in part, by the aggressor state.”
- Countering Russian Influence: “Ukraine must be safeguarded from Russian propaganda and economic subversion.”
Additionally, Ukraine must maintain its geopolitical agency, striking a balance between the interests of the U.S., the EU, and China while safeguarding its sovereignty. “Ukraine cannot be used as a bargaining chip in international negotiations,” he cautioned.
A Call for Strategic Foresight
Zaluzhnyi concluded by referencing Canadian science fiction writer Karl Schroeder, who once wrote, “The purpose of prediction is not to foresee the future but to minimise surprises.” He urged Western policymakers to heed this lesson.
“Are global players ready for the new world order, or will they need another war to realise what is happening?” he asked. The answer, he suggested, will shape not just Ukraine’s future, but that of Europe and the wider world.
His speech left no doubt: the old order is gone. The question now is not whether Ukraine will be part of the new security architecture, but what role it will play in defining it.
