On 17 October, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, delivered a pivotal speech at Chatham House, offering a detailed analysis of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
In his address, Zaluzhnyi examined the conflict’s evolution, its wider global implications, and the crucial role of Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty. His insights explored not only the immediate challenges Ukraine faces but also the broader geopolitical stakes, particularly concerning Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership and its strategic alignment with the West.
The Collective West and Authoritarianism
At the outset of his speech, Zaluzhnyi framed the conflict as not just a battle for Ukraine’s survival but as a pivotal moment for the “collective West.” He defined the collective West as a group of developed democracies, primarily in Western Europe and North America, bound together by shared economic, political, and security interests. NATO, as the security pillar of this collective, was seen by Zaluzhnyi as a protector of these democracies and their values.
In contrast, he described Russia and its allies as authoritarian regimes, where power is centralised, and the economy is driven by mineral resources, serving the interests of ruling elites rather than the people. Zaluzhnyi noted that Ukraine’s struggle is emblematic of the broader fight against authoritarian expansionism, a theme echoed in his references to countries that have historically sought independence from imperial rule.
Ukraine’s Struggle for Independence
Zaluzhnyi underscored Ukraine’s decade-long battle for independence, highlighting that, unlike other countries that have succumbed to authoritarian control, Ukraine has fought back, both diplomatically and militarily. He pointed out that Ukraine’s resistance began well before the 2022 invasion, dating back to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ensuing war in Donbas.
“Ukraine has been fighting for its independence for the last 10 years with weapons in its hands,” Zaluzhnyi stated, referencing the loss of over 30,000 lives and the suffering of hundreds of thousands more. He described Ukraine’s fight as one for the right to live freely within the civilized Western world, underlining that Russia’s ultimate goal is the destruction of Ukraine’s national identity, culture, and history.
The Role of the West in Ukraine’s War
Zaluzhnyi expressed disappointment in what he characterised as the initial reluctance of the West, particularly the United States, to provide Ukraine with sufficient military support. He argued that the collective West’s fear of escalation, particularly the threat of nuclear war, has resulted in a protracted conflict. “In 2023, we failed to achieve any significant success in defeating Russia,” Zaluzhnyi acknowledged, citing a lack of sufficient weaponry as a key reason for Ukraine’s stalled progress on the battlefield.
He also criticised the West for not acting decisively during previous Russian aggressions, such as the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. According to Zaluzhnyi, these failures emboldened Russia and contributed to the current war.
However, Zaluzhnyi was careful not to cast blame on Ukraine’s Western allies. Instead, he expressed gratitude for the support provided, particularly by NATO and the broader international community, while urging for more comprehensive security guarantees.
The Future of War: Technology and AI
A significant portion of Zaluzhnyi’s speech focused on the changing nature of warfare, particularly the increasing role of technology and artificial intelligence (AI). He asserted that traditional war strategies, reminiscent of the Korean War era, are no longer effective in the modern context. “In 2024, technologies entered the battlefield,” Zaluzhnyi said, referring to the use of AI-driven systems and robotics in combat operations.
This technological shift, according to Zaluzhnyi, necessitates a reevaluation of global security strategies. He urged NATO to adapt to these changes, suggesting that Ukraine’s experiences on the battlefield could help strengthen and modernise the alliance. He argued that NATO’s current structure, rooted in Cold War-era doctrines, is ill-equipped to handle the rapidly evolving nature of warfare.
NATO and Ukraine’s Security Future
Zaluzhnyi was unequivocal in his assertion that Ukraine’s security hinges on its integration into NATO. “Ukraine simply needs to join NATO,” he declared, citing the alliance as the only credible guarantee for Ukraine’s long-term security. However, he acknowledged the complexities involved, including the reluctance of some NATO members to escalate the conflict with Russia.
In the absence of immediate NATO membership, Zaluzhnyi suggested that Ukraine could adopt a model similar to Israel, where national security is heavily fortified by international support. He cautioned, however, that this approach would likely result in a prolonged state of conflict, similar to Israel’s experience with ongoing security threats.
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