Exit polls suggest former president Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria has won a decisive lead in the country’s latest snap parliamentary election, raising the prospect of a new government less aligned with Kyiv and more open to pro-Russian influence.
Exit polls in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election on Sunday, 19 April, indicate a clear lead for former president Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria, in a result that may reshape the country’s domestic politics and foreign policy at a sensitive moment for both the EU and Ukraine. Multiple reports put Radev’s bloc well ahead of its nearest rivals, though still short of an outright majority in the 240-seat National Assembly.
According to exit poll figures cited by Bulgarian media, Progressive Bulgaria won about 38 per cent of the vote, substantially outperforming expectations and emerging as the dominant force in a fragmented political field. Other projections placed support in a similar range, with GERB-SDS in second place on roughly 15 to 16 per cent and the reformist pro-European alliance Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria in third on about 13 to 14 per cent. Six parties were projected to clear the 4 per cent threshold for representation.
The vote was Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election in five years, underlining the scale of the country’s political instability and the repeated failure of successive parliaments to produce durable governing coalitions. Radev, who resigned from the presidency earlier this year in order to enter party politics directly, campaigned on a promise to restore order, tackle corruption and break the cycle of short-lived administrations.
For Brussels and Kyiv, however, the significance of the result lies not only in Bulgaria’s internal instability but in the likely geopolitical direction of any government led or influenced by Radev. He has long been regarded by critics as one of the more Russia-friendly figures in Bulgarian politics. Although he has condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he has also opposed military support for Kyiv and has consistently struck a more accommodating tone towards Moscow than most mainstream EU leaders.
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That makes the coalition arithmetic particularly important. Exit polls suggest Progressive Bulgaria could fall well short of governing alone, which means negotiations with other forces will now be decisive. One of the main concerns raised by opponents is the possibility of a parliamentary arrangement involving the openly pro-Russian Revival party, which appears likely to enter parliament. Even if such a partnership were not formalised immediately, the numbers suggest that parties sceptical of stronger backing for Ukraine may have a broader platform in the next legislature than in previous parliaments.
The election also took place against a backdrop of mounting concern over malign foreign influence and electoral malpractice. Earlier this month Bulgaria sought EU support in countering possible Russian interference in the campaign, reflecting wider alarm over disinformation and manipulation in the run-up to the vote. In the final stages of polling day, Bulgarian authorities said they had received 328 reports of alleged election violations and had opened 26 investigations. Separate reports before the election said police had detained dozens of people in operations linked to suspected vote-buying.
Turnout was reported at around 43 to 48 per cent, depending on the projection cited, again reflecting the volatility and fatigue that have come to define Bulgarian politics. The inability of recent elections to produce stable governance has steadily eroded public confidence, while repeated corruption scandals, institutional deadlock and economic frustrations have widened the space for outsiders and anti-establishment forces.
The immediate question is whether Radev can convert a commanding first-place finish into a functioning government. A strong lead in an exit poll does not in itself guarantee control of parliament, and coalition talks in Sofia have repeatedly proved unpredictable. Yet the scale of the projected win gives Progressive Bulgaria clear momentum and places Radev at the centre of the next phase of government formation.
For the EU, the result will be watched closely as an indicator of sentiment in one of its most politically unsettled member states. For Ukraine, it is more than that. Bulgaria has at times played an important, if often understated, role in the wider European response to Russia’s war. A Bulgarian government less willing to align firmly with Kyiv and the EU mainstream would not transform the balance of power on its own, but it would complicate the political environment inside the Union at a time when unity remains strategically important.
