missile transfer

Reuters reports that Iran is mediating secret discussions between Russia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels for the potential transfer of advanced anti-ship missiles, according to multiple Western and regional sources. The negotiations involve the supply of Yakhont missiles, also known as P-800 Oniks, which could strengthen the Houthis’ ability to target commercial vessels and military ships in the Red Sea.

Although no final decision has been made, these talks point to increasing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow. Several sources confirmed the ongoing discussions, while Western officials expressed concern about the impact such a move could have on security, maritime trade, and efforts to maintain stability in the Middle East.

While Iran’s involvement in these talks has not been widely known, reports suggest that further meetings are expected to take place in Tehran. Two regional officials confirmed that representatives from Russia and the Houthis have met in Iran at least twice this year. The Yakhont missile, which has a range of about 300 kilometres, would enhance the Houthis’ military capabilities, allowing them to strike vessels in the Red Sea, a key route for international trade.

A Western intelligence source stated that Iran is acting as an intermediary in the talks but is careful to avoid direct involvement. This approach aligns with Iran’s broader strategy in the region, particularly in Yemen, where it has supported the Houthis against the internationally recognised Yemeni government and a Saudi-led coalition.

Impact on Maritime Trade

Since November, the Houthis have launched drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, escalating tensions in this crucial shipping route. The Houthis claim these strikes are in support of Palestinians amid the Gaza conflict. These actions have already resulted in the sinking of two ships and the seizure of a third, disrupting global trade and forcing shipping companies to change routes. Additionally, insurance premiums for ships navigating the area have increased due to the heightened risks.

The United States and the United Kingdom have launched strikes on Houthi positions in an attempt to curb these attacks. However, their efforts have not stopped further missile launches. If the Yakhont missiles are delivered to the Houthis, the situation could worsen, as these weapons would give the group the ability to target ships more accurately and at greater distances.

Strengthening Russia-Iran Military Ties

The growing military cooperation between Russia and Iran is not limited to Yemen. Tehran and Moscow have developed closer ties during Russia’s war in Ukraine. Earlier this year, reports indicated that Iran had supplied ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, solidifying their relationship. Western officials believe Russia’s interest in arming the Houthis may be linked to broader geopolitical issues, especially concerning the West’s military support for Ukraine.

Regional Concerns and Potential Escalation

The possibility of Yakhont missiles reaching the Houthis has raised alarms among regional players. U.S. officials have discussed the issue with Saudi counterparts, and Washington has raised concerns with Moscow. The Saudi government, which is involved in the ongoing conflict with the Houthis, has reportedly expressed its worries directly to Russia.

Fabian Hinz, a missile expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that transferring Yakhont missiles to the Houthis would be a turning point for security in the region. The Yakhont missile, which travels at supersonic speeds and is difficult to detect, would pose a significant challenge for those defending commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Hinz also noted that these missiles could be used in land-based attacks, potentially threatening Saudi Arabia.

Concerns have also been raised about how the missiles would be delivered and made operational without detection. The Houthis, lacking the technical expertise to deploy such advanced weapons independently, would require assistance from Russia to make the Yakhont missiles functional. This would likely involve training and logistical support, further raising the stakes in the region.