European Union leaders are set to consider adding a revision clause to the bloc’s proposed 2040 climate target, a move that would allow the goal to be adjusted in future in light of new evidence and economic conditions.
Draft European Council conclusions seen ahead of the summit on Thursday, 23 October 2025, indicate support for proceeding with a 2040 target while setting conditions for how it is finalised. Those include the option to revisit the target based on scientific developments, technological progress and the EU’s global competitiveness.
The European Commission has proposed cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, positioning the EU among the most ambitious major economies. The proposal sits within a wider update to the European Climate Law and would guide the bloc’s 2035 commitment to the United Nations ahead of COP30.
The debate comes amid diverging national positions on the pace and design of decarbonisation. Poland and several other member states have argued for a formal revision clause to mitigate risks if green technologies scale more slowly than expected or if economic conditions impede investment. Other capitals, including France and Latvia, have raised technical concerns over the contribution of natural carbon sinks. They warn that forests and agricultural lands may not absorb emissions at the rates assumed, partly due to wildfire damage linked to a warming climate.
A separate draft circulated last week suggested leaders would also underline “technological neutrality” in delivering climate objectives. In EU policymaking, that phrase is often taken to mean avoiding prescriptive bans on particular technologies, such as internal combustion engines, while leaving room for multiple pathways to emissions reduction.
Flexibilities under discussion
The Commission’s July proposal built in flexibilities intended to ease the transition for industry. One option would allow a limited share—up to three percentage points—of the 90% target to be met using international carbon credits, rather than through domestic emissions cuts alone. That marks a departure from the EU’s existing targets, which have to date relied on reductions within the bloc. The approach has prompted debate: the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change has advised against counting international credits towards the 2040 goal, urging deep domestic reductions instead.
In parallel, the Commission has floated adjustments to certain green files in response to political pressure from governments seeking to ease regulatory and cost burdens. Areas flagged include the EU’s corporate sustainability reporting framework and an upcoming carbon pricing regime for buildings and road transport fuels. Leaders’ draft conclusions also invite the Commission to develop further “enabling conditions”—potentially policy changes or additional funding—to support citizens and industry in meeting climate objectives.
Competitiveness and funding
The discussion is occurring against a wider backdrop of concerns about the EU’s industrial competitiveness and financing capacity. Multiple capitals have pressed for measures to cut administrative burdens and align climate policy with industrial strategy, citing competition from China and the United States in clean technologies. A letter from a group of leaders this week called for a new push to “review, reduce and restrain” EU legislation to bolster competitiveness, a theme expected to surface in the climate debate.
Member states remain split over how prescriptive the 2040 framework should be and how costs are shared. Some governments favour a broader target range that could track between the EU’s 2030 milestone (a 55% cut) and its 2050 climate-neutrality objective, while others argue for an unequivocal 90% benchmark to give investment certainty.
Natural sinks and resilience
The reliability of land-sector carbon removals is likely to be a focal point. Forests and agricultural soils are expected to absorb a material share of residual emissions by 2040, but recent wildfire seasons and climate impacts have increased uncertainty around these projections. Any revision clause would provide a mechanism to recalibrate the target trajectory should sink performance deviate from assumptions.
Next steps
If leaders endorse the draft conclusions on 23 October, the Commission and co-legislators would continue work on the legal proposal to enshrine a 2040 target in EU law. The final shape of the goal—its headline figure, any permitted role for international credits, and provisions for review—will depend on negotiations among member states and the European Parliament. The outcome will influence the EU’s 2035 UN submission and the policy architecture for the next decade, including emissions trading, carbon border measures and sectoral regulations.
As of Wednesday, 22 October 2025, the core elements under discussion are: a net-90% target proposal; a potential revision clause tied to science, technology and competitiveness; consideration of limited use of international credits; and requests for additional enabling measures to support industry and households. The European Council is expected to revisit these issues as the legislative file advances.
EU leaders weigh 2040 climate goal with fresh support for industry
