Puigdemont’s return was announced via a video on X, where he stated, “I am on my way back from exile.” Although anticipated, his return was supposed to unfold differently. Last year, Puigdemont negotiated a controversial amnesty law with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. In exchange for supporting Sánchez’s new government, it was promised that all legal actions and penalties against those involved in the illegal referendum for Catalan independence and the subsequent declaration of a new state would be dropped. Puigdemont fled to Belgium in 2017 and aimed to return to Barcelona as a hero and potentially resume his role as President.
However, his plans were thwarted twice. In the May Catalonian elections, separatist parties lost their majority. The Catalonian social democrats, led by Salvador Illa, emerged victorious. Today, the Catalonian Parliament is set to approve Illa as the new President, but Puigdemont’s return is likely to steal the spotlight and potentially delay the session.
Puigdemont does not return as a free man; his goal is to embarrass Spain and disrupt the formation of the new Catalonian government.
Legal Challenges and Arrest Threats
The Spanish Supreme Court complicated matters by ruling that not all crimes qualify for amnesty. Specifically, the court decided that the misuse of public funds remains punishable, one of the charges Puigdemont faces, which could lead to over ten years in prison. Consequently, the arrest warrant against him remains active.
In a four-page letter posted on X, Puigdemont described the court’s decision as a “coup.” Aware that his return might lead to his arrest and imprisonment, he seems prepared for this eventuality.
Regarding the events in Catalan politics and my return after seven years in exile, I have written this letter. The rejection by the Spanish Supreme Court to apply the amnesty law is nothing less than an hybrid coup.
📑 «Seven years in exile, Amnesty, investiture, and prison»… pic.twitter.com/XgOpTe9kIv
— krls.eth / Carles Puigdemont (@KRLS) August 6, 2024
His potential arrest could provide a dramatic photo opportunity, thwarting the installation of the new Catalonian government and criticising the Spanish authorities and judiciary.
Puigdemont’s return appears to be his last political gambit, aiming to remain relevant and avoid fading into political obscurity. Speculation surrounds his fate, as the court may require him to await trial in prison due to his flight risk—a politically sensitive decision.
Implications for the Catalonian Conflict
Puigdemont’s messages on X were also translated into English, highlighting his strategy to internationalise the Catalonian independence issue, which has been effective in the past. However, the Catalonia he returns to has changed. The left-wing separatists have formed an agreement with the social democrats to allow Illa to become President, in exchange for a new Catalonian funding law. This agreement signifies an end to the unity among separatist parties that previously masked their ideological differences.
The recent elections revealed a desire among Catalans for a new political direction after years of economic strain and polarisation caused by the independence conflict.
The public’s reaction to this unexpected political drama remains to be seen. Puigdemont has been a polarising figure, oscillating between ridicule and reverence. His return at a time when a new Catalonian government is set to take office is controversial. Journalist José Luis Sastre remarked on radio Ser, “Puigdemont is very concerned with Catalonia, but he prefers the region paralysed without a government.”
Broader Political Repercussions
Puigdemont’s return is not just a regional issue; it has significant implications for Spanish politics as well. The Supreme Court’s decision to deny amnesty for certain crimes undermines the agreement that helped form Sánchez’s coalition government.
Josep Rull, the President of the Catalonian Parliament, stated that if Puigdemont is arrested, it would disrupt the parliamentary session meant to invest Salvador Illa as President of the Generalitat. Puigdemont’s potential arrest and the subsequent political upheaval could destabilise both the Catalonian and national governments.
Right-wing parties in Spain have seized on the situation. The Popular Party has criticised Sánchez’s government, suggesting that his investiture was purchased at the cost of Spanish unity.
Esteban Gonzalez Pons, an MEP from the Popular Party, stated that both Sánchez’s and Illa’s positions were secured through questionable means.
Vox leader Santiago Abascal has been more direct, calling for Puigdemont’s imprisonment and organising a counter-protest at the Catalonian Parliament.
Potential for Unrest
The return of Puigdemont has also raised concerns about potential unrest in Catalonia. The police are on high alert, prepared for possible disturbances if Puigdemont’s return leads to mass gatherings at the border or in Barcelona.
The situation is further complicated by allegations against Puigdemont’s chief of staff, who is accused of contacting Russian spies concerning prisoner exchanges.
Prime Minister Sánchez faces additional pressure from an ongoing investigation involving his wife, Begoña Gómez. This, combined with the political turmoil Puigdemont’s return might cause, places Sánchez’s government in a precarious position.
As Puigdemont’s dramatic return unfolds, it threatens to reignite the Catalonian independence debate and complicate the region’s political future. His actions will undoubtedly test the resolve of the Spanish government and judiciary, while also influencing the sentiment of Catalonians and the broader international community.
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