In a recent escalation, Russia has begun using thermobaric drones in attacks on Ukraine, pairing them with decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian defence systems.
The deployment of these thermobaric-equipped unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has raised significant concerns, as these devices generate high-pressure explosions capable of inflicting extensive structural damage and severe injuries, even in heavily fortified locations. The Associated Press reports that the manufacturing of these drones, initiated in Russia’s special economic zone “Alabuga,” has introduced a new level of threat to Ukrainian urban centres and critical infrastructure.
Thermobaric warheads create a high-temperature blast wave by igniting an aerosol cloud of fuel, depleting oxygen and generating extreme pressure. This technology allows the blast to penetrate solid structures, such as concrete walls, making it particularly effective in urban settings.
Injuries caused by these devices extend well beyond the immediate impact site, with typical effects including lung damage, eye trauma, and neurological harm due to the sudden shift in atmospheric pressure. These UAVs were initially spotted in the summer of 2024, and they are now a notable element of the Russian drone arsenal.
Decoy Drones: The Strategy of “Operation False Target”
The deployment of thermobaric drones is paired with a high volume of decoy UAVs under a strategy reportedly named “Operation False Target.” Introduced in late 2022, this approach involves launching weaponised drones in tandem with decoys, which are often packed with non-explosive materials such as rags or foam.
These decoys, indistinguishable from armed drones on radar, are designed to deplete Ukrainian defence resources by forcing split-second decisions on engaging targets. The decoy UAVs now comprise more than half of Russia’s drone fleet targeting Ukraine, as reported by Sergei Beskrestnov, an electronic warfare expert. Known as “Flash,” Beskrestnov estimates that thermobaric drones currently constitute 3-5% of the UAVs deployed in the conflict.
Ukrainian air defences face significant challenges due to the difficulty in distinguishing between armed drones and decoys. Colonel Yuriy Ignat of the Ukrainian Air Force explained that on radar, each UAV is merely a “point,” marked by its speed, direction, and altitude.
Consequently, Ukrainian forces must decide quickly whether to deploy jamming equipment or open fire to neutralise the perceived threat, as hesitation could result in devastating consequences if a drone is carrying live ordnance. “The enemy uses this tactic to distract our attention,” Ignat noted, underscoring the strategic complexity introduced by the influx of decoy drones.
The TB-BCh-50 Warhead: Capabilities and Impact
The thermobaric warheads fitted to Shahed-136 drones, labelled as the TB-BCh-50, have been increasingly used in attacks on Ukrainian cities. These warheads weigh 52.4 kg and incorporate approximately 2,306 steel ball fragments, which contribute to a lethal combination of thermal and shrapnel effects.
Information about the TB-BCh-50’s development surfaced after a cyberattack on the servers of “Alabuga,” the Russian facility responsible for assembling and modifying these UAVs. This newer version of thermobaric munitions operates through a single-stage reaction, where the fuel mixture ignites upon detonation, creating a “fire cloud” with temperatures reaching 2,400-2,600°C.
The operational advantage of thermobaric warheads is maximised in confined spaces, where the blast wave can permeate multiple rooms, making it an effective tool for targeting densely populated areas. The Russian-Iranian Shahed drones, armed with the TB-BCh-50 warheads, are thus particularly destructive when deployed in Ukrainian urban areas, with Kyiv being a primary target.
This form of warfare has led Ukrainian authorities to revise protective measures, advising residents to close interior doors in addition to observing the “two-wall rule” for improved blast resistance. However, experts recommend seeking shelter as the most effective method for minimising exposure to these attacks.
Challenges in Distinguishing Between Armed and Decoy Drones
Technological countermeasures against Russia’s drone assault are hindered by the indistinguishability of decoy UAVs from those equipped with lethal warheads. The decoys, which may be fitted with surveillance cameras for real-time feedback, mimic the flight patterns and radar profiles of live-ordnance drones, complicating interception efforts.
For Ukraine’s defence teams, every signal on the radar represents a potential threat, necessitating rapid response tactics. Ignat highlighted that while electronic warfare can be used to disable UAVs remotely, the uncertainty of each drone’s payload often necessitates the use of live ammunition, further straining limited defence resources.
Russia’s Escalating Drone Campaign and Ukraine’s Response
The large-scale use of Shahed-136 UAVs equipped with thermobaric capabilities marks a shift in the type of ordnance being deployed. These drones, designed to attack critical infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas, are intended to exact a toll on both Ukraine’s population and its defensive capabilities. The “Alabuga” plant in Tatarstan, Russia, continues to modify these drones, with the latest generation possessing enhanced destructive power through thermobaric and shrapnel effects.
The rapid progression of drone technology in the conflict, particularly the integration of thermobaric weaponry, presents a unique challenge for Ukrainian forces. While Ukraine has adapted its air defences to counter previous iterations of Russian drones, the additional complication of high-powered thermobaric warheads paired with decoys is testing these systems’ resilience.
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