Russia has signalled that it will not accept key concessions at the centre of Donald Trump’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine, as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The meeting in the Kremlin comes after months of U.S.-led diplomacy in which a 28-point framework drafted by the Trump administration was refined in talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva and Florida. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Kyiv is willing to study the latest text, but only on condition that it does not cement Russian territorial gains or impose lasting constraints on Ukraine’s defences.
Russian negotiators have indicated that Moscow will not compromise on at least three issues. First, Ukrainian forces would be required to withdraw from the entire territory of Donetsk region, including the Ukrainian-held cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, long described as key strongholds in the Donbas. Second, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would face permanent limits on size and capabilities. Third, the United States and European Union would be expected to recognise Russia’s sovereignty over all territories currently occupied by its forces. These conditions, if confirmed, would amount to de facto recognition of Russia’s 2022–25 advances.
None of these demands is acceptable to Kyiv. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not agree to territorial concessions or to restrictions that would leave the country exposed to future attack. Speaking in Ireland on Tuesday, he said Ukraine remained open to U.S. efforts but stressed that “sovereignty, territorial integrity and real security guarantees” were non-negotiable. He has also indicated that a high-level meeting with Trump or his envoys will only make sense if Washington can demonstrate that Russia is ready to move on its current position.
Ukrainian analysts therefore expect any direct encounter between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in the coming days to be largely symbolic, aimed at avoiding a public rift with Washington rather than at closing an agreement. They argue that any Ukrainian leadership seen to accept Russian demands over Donetsk or other occupied areas would face a severe domestic backlash and a likely escalation of the war, rather than a durable peace.
The Moscow talks are taking place against a military backdrop that is unfavourable to compromise. Russia claims to have taken full control of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, though Kyiv insists fighting is ongoing. The front line remains fluid but attritional, with Western and Ukrainian estimates suggesting that total Russian casualties are approaching or exceeding one million, including as many as 250,000 soldiers killed since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Ukrainian losses are also very high. In Kyiv’s view, Russia’s unwillingness to moderate its territorial claims despite those losses confirms that Putin still believes time and manpower are on his side.
At sea, the talks coincide with a sharp escalation in the contest over Russian oil revenues. Ukraine has opened a new phase of its campaign against Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, striking at least two sanctioned tankers, Kairos and Virat, with naval drones in the Black Sea as they sailed empty towards the Russian port of Novorossiysk. A third Russia-linked tanker was later attacked in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, prompting Ankara to warn of the risks to wider commercial shipping. Ukrainian drones have also hit infrastructure at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, temporarily cutting export capacity.
These strikes have pushed war-risk insurance premiums for voyages in the Black Sea higher – to around 0.5 per cent of a vessel’s value for calls to Ukrainian ports and up to 0.8 per cent for Russian ports – and have added to pressure on Russia’s oil income. Urals crude has recently traded in the low-40s dollars per barrel in some markets, significantly below Brent, and analysts estimate that once discounts and transport are included Russia may be receiving about $40–45 a barrel on some export flows.
This erosion of energy revenue coincides with tightening U.S. and EU sanctions and with discussion in Western capitals about further measures directed at Russian shipping and insurance. Ukrainian commentators link Putin’s hard line in the peace talks with his apparent readiness to absorb both battlefield casualties and economic losses rather than retreat from his stated objectives.
For Trump, the stakes are different but also considerable. His envoys have been tasked with salvaging a peace initiative that initially alarmed European allies by appearing to trade Ukrainian territory for a ceasefire. European governments have since pushed to insert stronger safeguards for Ukraine’s sovereignty and future security architecture into the emerging framework. At the same time, U.S. defence industry interests and Republican foreign-policy hawks are arguing that continued or expanded arms sales to Ukraine would both support a partner at war and secure tens of billions of dollars in business for American manufacturers.
If the Moscow talks fail, as many in Kyiv and European capitals expect, attention is likely to return swiftly to sanctions policy and weapons deliveries. Analysts predict that Trump could respond with sharper rhetoric towards Zelenskyy, while Congress and the Pentagon face renewed lobbying from those who see long-term support for Ukraine as both a strategic and an economic opportunity. In that scenario, Putin’s refusal to move on territory or on limits to Ukraine’s armed forces would not end diplomatic efforts, but it would strengthen the argument in Western capitals that any sustainable peace will depend less on new formulas and more on the balance of forces on the ground – and at sea – in the months ahead.
