German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said an EU–India free trade agreement could be concluded by the end of January 2026, arguing that negotiations are “close to completion” after talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Gujarat.
Merz’s comments were made during a visit that included meetings in Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar and was billed by Berlin as an effort to deepen economic and security ties with India. Reuters reported that, if the remaining issues are settled, EU leaders could travel to India later this month to sign the agreement. Indian and German officials also issued a joint statement after the talks, framing the relationship as part of a broader strategic partnership and citing record bilateral trade in 2024.
The prospective EU–India deal would be the bloc’s most significant trade agreement with a large emerging economy in more than a decade, and it comes as the EU seeks to expand commercial links beyond China and to secure supply chains for critical inputs. Reuters reported that Merz criticised rising global protectionism during the trip, without naming specific countries, and linked the push for an agreement to the wider global trade climate.
For the EU, the economic baseline is already substantial. The European Commission’s trade factsheet says the EU accounted for goods trade worth €120 billion with India in 2024, representing 11.5 per cent of India’s total goods trade that year, while India was the EU’s ninth-largest trading partner in goods. The Commission also notes that EU–India goods trade has grown sharply over the last decade.
Negotiations have been running in their current form since June 2022, when the EU and India relaunched talks on a free trade agreement alongside separate tracks on investment protection and geographical indications. The European Parliament’s “Legislative Train” briefing sets out the structure as three parallel agreements and traces the longer history of talks that began in 2007 and stalled in 2013.
Merz’s end-January timeline aligns with expectations in Brussels about a possible summit later this month. The European Parliament’s agenda note refers to a potential EU–India summit in New Delhi on 27 January 2026, with an expectation that any final trade text would need to be settled beforehand if that date is confirmed.
On the Indian side, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has repeatedly signalled that negotiations are in the “final stages”, including after a January visit to Brussels for talks with the EU’s trade leadership. Reuters reported that Goyal said the deal was “nearly finalised”, after earlier ambitions to complete the negotiations by the end of 2025 were not met.
While the public messaging has emphasised proximity to a landing zone, the remaining content of a package is expected to be politically sensitive on both sides. EU–India trade talks cover market access for industrial and agricultural goods, services, public procurement, rules affecting investment, intellectual property, and provisions on sustainable development. A prominent recent point of contention has been the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which applies reporting requirements and, from 2026, a levy connected to embedded emissions on selected carbon-intensive imports. The Commission describes CBAM as a mechanism intended to price carbon embedded in imports and encourage cleaner production outside the EU. India has criticised CBAM in the past, with Reuters reporting Goyal’s objections to EU rules and standards he said harmed trade.
Merz’s India trip also produced bilateral deliverables beyond trade. The Associated Press reported agreements covering areas such as defence cooperation, skills and mobility, health, education, climate and energy cooperation, and rare-earths and critical minerals. Reuters similarly referred to understandings on security cooperation, critical minerals, healthcare and artificial intelligence, while noting that Germany urged India to reduce reliance on Russia in energy and defence—an area where New Delhi has previously resisted external pressure.
If a political agreement is reached by late January, the next steps will shift to legal scrubbing, translation, signature, and ratification procedures. EU trade deals typically require approval by member states in the Council and consent by the European Parliament; separate investment protection provisions may face additional national processes, depending on the legal structure chosen.
