Russia has become the first country to formally recognise Taliban rule in Afghanistan, marking a significant geopolitical shift likely to reverberate across diplomatic capitals from Washington to Delhi.
The announcement came during a meeting on Thursday between Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, and Russia’s ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov. Speaking after the encounter, Mr Muttaqi hailed Moscow’s move as a “courageous” decision that opens “a new phase of positive relations, mutual respect, and constructive engagement.”
“Recognition from Russia is a milestone,” Mr Muttaqi told reporters. “It sets an example for others and proves that our legitimacy is not tied to Western approval.”
Mr Zhirnov, who has maintained close contact with Taliban officials since their return to power in August 2021, delivered the official communication from the Kremlin during the meeting. The recognition marks the culmination of two years of cautious engagement between Moscow and the Taliban, despite Russia formally designating the group a terrorist organisation until earlier this year.
While the Russian Foreign Ministry has yet to confirm whether an exchange of ambassadors is imminent, the formal recognition signals a striking departure from Western policy. No other major power has yet recognised the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate government, with most withholding diplomatic ties over human rights concerns and the Taliban’s refusal to establish an inclusive government.
Moscow’s strategic calculus
For the Kremlin, the decision appears motivated less by idealism than by a combination of strategic necessity and geopolitical positioning.
Afghanistan borders the Central Asian republics, long considered Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. With NATO’s withdrawal leaving a power vacuum and regional security deteriorating, Moscow has quietly intensified its dialogue with Taliban leaders in hopes of stabilising its southern flank.
Moreover, Afghanistan is increasingly viewed in Moscow as a conduit for influence in Asia’s broader geopolitical chessboard. Russian analysts have cited China’s pragmatic engagement with the Taliban as a precedent, though Beijing has so far stopped short of official recognition.
By stepping forward first, Moscow aims to outmanoeuvre the West diplomatically and present itself as a reliable interlocutor in an increasingly multipolar world.
“Russia is signalling that it won’t wait for Washington’s permission to set its foreign policy,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “This is about leverage—over the Taliban, over Central Asia, and over the narrative of global legitimacy.”
Western unease
The Kremlin’s move will raise eyebrows in Western capitals already concerned by the Taliban’s deepening authoritarianism. Since retaking power nearly four years ago, the group has imposed sweeping restrictions on women, shuttered independent media, and executed opponents—despite early promises of moderation.
Human rights groups immediately criticised the Russian decision. Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch called it “a betrayal of Afghan women and girls” and warned that recognition without preconditions would embolden the regime’s worst tendencies.
But for the Taliban, whose control over the country remains largely uncontested, the recognition provides a much-needed diplomatic lifeline—and a potential path to foreign investment.
Kabul’s coffers are depleted, international aid has all but dried up, and sanctions have crippled Afghanistan’s banking sector. Russia’s formal recognition opens the door to energy deals, infrastructure investment, and limited financial relief, at a time when the country teeters on the edge of economic collapse.
Taliban officials have repeatedly pleaded for legitimacy, arguing that international isolation punishes ordinary Afghans more than the rulers. They have also courted regional actors including China, Iran, Turkey, and Qatar, with varying degrees of success.
Quiet endorsements, louder silences
The Kremlin’s decision does not exist in a vacuum. Several Central Asian countries have maintained open lines of communication with Kabul, and some, including Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, have engaged the Taliban in bilateral trade and infrastructure talks.
Yet none have taken the final step of formal recognition—until now.
Russia’s recognition, while symbolically powerful, may not be the game-changer the Taliban hope for. Western governments are unlikely to follow suit without dramatic reforms from Kabul. But the move may embolden other non-Western powers, especially those keen to exploit Afghanistan’s mineral wealth or establish a counterweight to American influence in Asia.
In the West, officials remain guarded. A senior European diplomat speaking to The Telegraph on condition of anonymity said: “Russia’s recognition is politically calculated. It says more about the Kremlin’s intent to provoke than about Afghanistan’s readiness for reintegration into the global order.”
Still, for the Taliban, isolated and starved of legitimacy for years, Moscow’s gesture marks a diplomatic breakthrough they will undoubtedly seize upon.
Whether others will follow remains uncertain. But as one Kabul-based analyst put it, “The ice has been broken. What follows depends not just on Afghanistan, but on whether the West is willing to re-engage—or to let Moscow and Beijing write the rules instead.”
