The international forum currently underway in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, has drawn attention not only for its significance in the cultural and diplomatic spheres, but for the high-profile meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
This marked the first encounter between the two leaders since Pezeshkian assumed the nominal presidency of Iran, making headlines worldwide. However, the central narrative emerging from the event is the evident success of Russia and Iran in thwarting Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions, particularly in the Turkic world.
Originally conceived as an informal gathering of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), the Ashgabat forum was expected to showcase Turkmenistan’s full integration into the organisation. This move was anticipated after Gurbanaguly Berdimuhamedow, Turkmenistan’s parliamentary leader and de facto head of state, signalled his country’s intent to join the OTS during the group’s summit in Ankara earlier this year.
However, contrary to expectations, the forum did not take the shape of an OTS meeting. Instead, it was repurposed into a broader international event with no formal announcement regarding Turkmenistan’s accession to the Turkic bloc.
Moreover, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was expected to play a prominent role, did not attend the event. This absence raised questions about the future of Turkey’s leadership within the Turkic world, as the forum saw the participation of prominent leaders such as Putin and Pezeshkian, as well as other heads of state from Central Asia and Pakistan.
Russia and Iran’s Rising Influence
Despite not being Turkic countries, Russia and Iran’s presence in Ashgabat dominated the forum, reflecting a significant shift in the region’s political dynamics. Russia, with its own Turkic minority, has long positioned itself as a key player in Eurasia.
However, it is Putin’s broader vision of a new world order that has drawn attention. Putin’s attendance at the forum, swiftly refocused to commemorate the 300th anniversary of Turkmen poet and philosopher Magtymguly Pyragy, further underlined Russia’s influence in reshaping the regional agenda.
The meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian was a clear demonstration of their alliance, one that seeks to challenge both Western and regional powers. Their discussions likely touched on ongoing conflicts, particularly Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s involvement in Middle Eastern conflict. Notably, the Iranian president called for more active Russian participation in the Middle East, further deepening the cooperation between Moscow and Tehran.
Turkey’s Declining Influence
The absence of Erdoğan in Ashgabat is seen by many as symbolic of Turkey’s diminishing influence in Central Asia, a region it has historically sought to lead through the concept of a “Turkic world.” This vision, championed by Turkish leaders from the 1990s onwards, aimed to forge closer political, economic, and cultural ties between Turkic-speaking nations. However, the forum in Ashgabat, initially intended to bolster Turkey’s leadership within this group, has instead showcased Russia and Iran’s rising dominance.
The forum’s agenda, reconfigured to exclude any formal Turkic State discussions, highlighted the shift away from Turkey’s ambitions. Leaders from Central Asia, including those from OTS member states, held bilateral meetings with Putin and Pezeshkian, emphasising their engagement with powers outside the Turkic sphere. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari’s presence further complicated Turkey’s position, as Islamabad, like Tehran, does not share the Turkic heritage, but remains a key regional actor.
China’s Influence Behind the Scenes
As discussions in Ashgabat unfold, the presence of another major player looms large: China. While Chinese officials did not attend the forum, the influence of Beijing can be felt throughout the proceedings. China, which has long sought to increase its footprint in Central Asia, stands to benefit from Turkey’s declining influence. As a major buyer of Iranian oil and a significant partner for Russia, China is seen as the true beneficiary of the geopolitical realignment on display at the forum.
Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has steadily expanded its economic and political influence in Central Asia, effectively sidelining Turkey’s vision of a Turkic world. The growing reliance of Russia and Iran on China further consolidates Beijing’s position in the region, particularly as both Moscow and Tehran face increasing isolation from the West.
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