Western intelligence

Western intelligence sources suggest that North Korea has become a major supplier of artillery shells to Russia, providing nearly half of the ammunition used by the Russian military annually.

This revelation, reported by The Times, highlights the growing dependence of Russia on North Korean armaments following a high-profile meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un earlier this year.

The information comes from a Western intelligence briefing, as cited by The Times. According to the report, Russia, which consumes approximately three million artillery shells per year, is now sourcing about half of this supply from North Korea. A Western intelligence official stated that this dependency emerged after a diplomatic visit by President Putin to Pyongyang, where military and strategic cooperation were discussed.

Although the quality of the North Korean shells has been called into question, with many reported to be faulty, their sheer quantity has enabled Russia to maintain a consistent level of operations on the battlefield. Western military analysts believe that the influx of North Korean ammunition has bolstered Russia’s capabilities, allowing it to achieve steady tactical gains, despite ongoing challenges in the war with Ukraine.

Battlefield Losses and Limitations

Despite the influx of military supplies from North Korea, Russia continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine. According to the intelligence briefing, Russia is currently losing approximately 1,200 soldiers per day, with a significant portion of these casualties – around 480 – occurring in the ongoing battle for the city of Pokrovsk, located in the Donetsk region.

The intelligence officer quoted in The Times added that Russia is struggling to simultaneously capture the city of Pokrovsk and push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. Without a large-scale mobilisation, these goals appear unattainable. However, it is noted that the Russian leadership, for now, seems reluctant to initiate such a move, opting instead to rely on foreign military support and smaller-scale conscription efforts.

No Sign of Peace Talks

Despite the heavy losses and logistical challenges, there is no indication that President Putin intends to change course. The source close to the intelligence operation told The Times, “We see no sign that Putin is backing down from his primary objective – the subjugation of Ukrainian sovereignty. I see no prospect for negotiations in the near future.” This assessment aligns with broader Western analysis, which suggests that the Kremlin remains committed to a long-term campaign in Ukraine, regardless of the human and material costs.

Increased Supply of Ammunition and Ballistic Missiles

In addition to the artillery shells, there are also reports that Russia has received substantial quantities of ballistic missiles from North Korea. According to estimates from South Korean intelligence, Russia had received around five million artillery shells from Pyongyang by the summer of 2024. These supplies have been crucial in allowing the Russian military to sustain its offensive operations, despite sanctions and international efforts to restrict its access to military hardware.

Recent evidence also points to the continued delivery of North Korean ballistic missiles to Moscow. These shipments are believed to have intensified following the Putin-Kim meeting, further strengthening military ties between the two countries. Such developments raise concerns about the extent of North Korea’s involvement in the ongoing war in Ukraine and the potential for further escalation.

Image: Kremlin.